**The market-implied probability of under $7 million for the opening weekend of *How to Rob a Bank* (David Leitch, Nicholas Hoult, Zoë Kravitz, Amazon MGM Studios) sits at 95.7% because pre-release tracking and early audience signals point to a modest debut.** Recent forecasts from Box Office Theory placed the film in the $3.5–8 million range (with a midpoint around $5.5 million), consistent with limited pre-sales and Thursday previews that generated only about $900K. The picture opened on November 13, 2026, in roughly 2,810 theaters, directly competing with higher-profile titles such as Paramount’s *Ebenezer* (Johnny Depp/Ti West), which tracked toward a much stronger $20–27 million opening. Critically, the film landed in mixed-to-poor territory (Rotten Tomatoes scores in the low-to-mid 30s to around 50%, Metacritic near 47), with reviewers noting tonal inconsistencies and a lack of the kinetic energy typical of Leitch’s earlier work (*The Fall Guy*, *Bullet Train*). This reception has suppressed word-of-mouth momentum and social-media buzz relative to the viral-heist premise. Comparable David Leitch originals and mid-budget action-comedies with similar star power and release positioning have frequently opened below $10 million when critical and tracking indicators align this way. An upset into the $7–9 million (or higher) band would require either stronger-than-expected walk-up business driven by positive audience exit polls, a sharp revision in reported theater counts, or a late surge in social-media engagement that the current tracking has not captured. Absent those developments, the market consensus reflects the weight of verified pre-release data and historical precedent for this profile of release.