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Политика·Европа

Референдум в ЕС по Исландии: явка

icon for Референдум в ЕС по Исландии: явка
Политика·Европа

Референдум в ЕС по Исландии: явка

75–80% 28%

80–85% 27%

70–75% 27%

45–50% 26%

Polymarket
НОВОЕ

75–80% 28%

80–85% 27%

70–75% 27%

45–50% 26%

Polymarket
НОВОЕ

<45%

$0 Объем

24%

45–50%

$0 Объем

26%

50–55%

$0 Объем

25%

55–60%

$0 Объем

24%

60–65%

$0 Объем

26%

65–70%

$0 Объем

26%

70–75%

$0 Объем

27%

75–80%

$0 Объем

28%

80–85%

$0 Объем

27%

85%+

$0 Объем

11%

A referendum on Icelandic European Union membership negotiations is expected to be held on August 29, 2026. This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for this referendum, defined as the total number of votes cast, including blank and null votes reported, divided by the total number of eligible voters. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the referendum aren't known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.The razor-thin polling margin ahead of Iceland’s August 29 referendum on resuming EU accession talks—currently 51.3% Yes to 48.7% No—has intensified mobilization by both camps, supporting expectations of solid but uncertain turnout in line with Iceland’s typical 75-85% range for national votes. Early voting since late July, regional divides (stronger capital support), and lingering undecided voters keep probabilities distributed across multiple bins. Weather on election day, final campaign intensity, or shifts in fisheries and sovereignty concerns could widen or compress participation and separate the leading ranges.

A referendum on Icelandic European Union membership negotiations is expected to be held on August 29, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for this referendum, defined as the total number of votes cast, including blank and null votes reported, divided by the total number of eligible voters.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the results of the referendum aren't known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Объем
$0
Дата окончания
29 авг. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Aug 27, 2026, 9:21 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A referendum on Icelandic European Union membership negotiations is expected to be held on August 29, 2026. This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for this referendum, defined as the total number of votes cast, including blank and null votes reported, divided by the total number of eligible voters. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the referendum aren't known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
A referendum on Icelandic European Union membership negotiations is expected to be held on August 29, 2026. This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for this referendum, defined as the total number of votes cast, including blank and null votes reported, divided by the total number of eligible voters. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the referendum aren't known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.The razor-thin polling margin ahead of Iceland’s August 29 referendum on resuming EU accession talks—currently 51.3% Yes to 48.7% No—has intensified mobilization by both camps, supporting expectations of solid but uncertain turnout in line with Iceland’s typical 75-85% range for national votes. Early voting since late July, regional divides (stronger capital support), and lingering undecided voters keep probabilities distributed across multiple bins. Weather on election day, final campaign intensity, or shifts in fisheries and sovereignty concerns could widen or compress participation and separate the leading ranges.

A referendum on Icelandic European Union membership negotiations is expected to be held on August 29, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for this referendum, defined as the total number of votes cast, including blank and null votes reported, divided by the total number of eligible voters.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the results of the referendum aren't known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Объем
$0
Дата окончания
29 авг. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Aug 27, 2026, 9:21 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A referendum on Icelandic European Union membership negotiations is expected to be held on August 29, 2026. This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for this referendum, defined as the total number of votes cast, including blank and null votes reported, divided by the total number of eligible voters. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the referendum aren't known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Связанные

icon for Победит ли вариант «Нет» на референдуме по переговорам о вступлении Исландии в ЕС с преимуществом менее 3%?

Победит ли вариант «Нет» на референдуме по переговорам о вступлении Исландии в ЕС с преимуществом менее 3%?

42%
Да
icon for Референдум по переговорам о вступлении Исландии в Европейский союз принят?

Референдум по переговорам о вступлении Исландии в Европейский союз принят?

35%
Да
icon for Will voter turnout be between 53% and 56% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?

Will voter turnout be between 53% and 56% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?

29%

Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.

Часто задаваемые вопросы

«Референдум в ЕС по Исландии: явка» — это рынок прогнозов на Polymarket с 10 возможными исходами, где трейдеры покупают и продают акции на основе своих прогнозов. Текущий лидирующий исход — «75–80%» с 28%, за ним следует «70–75%» с 27%. Цены отражают вероятности сообщества в реальном времени. Например, акция по цене 28¢ означает, что рынок коллективно оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 28%. Эти коэффициенты постоянно меняются. Акции правильного исхода можно обменять на $1 каждую при разрешении рынка.

«Референдум в ЕС по Исландии: явка» — недавно созданный рынок на Polymarket, запущен Aug 27, 2026. Как ранний рынок, это твоя возможность быть среди первых трейдеров, устанавливающих коэффициенты и формирующих начальные ценовые сигналы. Ты также можешь добавить эту страницу в закладки, чтобы следить за объёмом и активностью торгов.

Чтобы торговать на «Референдум в ЕС по Исландии: явка», просмотри 10 доступных исходов на этой странице. Каждый исход показывает текущую цену, представляющую подразумеваемую вероятность рынка. Чтобы занять позицию, выбери исход, который считаешь наиболее вероятным, выбери «Да» для торговли в его пользу или «Нет» для торговли против, введи сумму и нажми «Торговать». Если твой выбранный исход окажется верным, твои акции «Да» принесут $1 каждая. Если нет — $0. Ты также можешь продать акции до разрешения.

Текущий фаворит для «Референдум в ЕС по Исландии: явка» — «75–80%» с 28%, что означает, что рынок оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 28%. Следующий ближайший исход — «70–75%» с 27%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени по мере покупки и продажи акций. Заходи чаще или добавь страницу в закладки.

Правила разрешения «Референдум в ЕС по Исландии: явка» точно определяют, что должно произойти, чтобы каждый исход был объявлен победителем, включая официальные источники данных, используемые для определения результата. Ты можешь просмотреть полные критерии разрешения в разделе «Правила» на этой странице над комментариями. Мы рекомендуем внимательно прочитать правила перед торговлей, так как они определяют точные условия, особые случаи и источники.