Recent U.S.-Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026 damaged key Iranian enrichment sites including Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, disrupting centrifuge operations and leaving enriched uranium stockpiles inaccessible or compromised according to IAEA assessments. Iran has not resumed enrichment since the attacks, and a June 2026 memorandum reaffirmed its commitment against nuclear weapons development amid ongoing negotiations. Traders assign 95.5 percent probability to no nuclear acquisition before 2027 due to these physical setbacks, inspector access limits, and diplomatic pressures that extend timelines beyond the resolution window. Concealed rebuilding efforts, renewed enrichment at undamaged facilities, or abrupt collapse of talks could still shift outcomes before the end of 2026.