Recent US and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026 damaged key Iranian enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, with satellite imagery and IAEA reporting showing no subsequent repair or reconstruction efforts at declared sites. This has extended estimated breakout timelines to roughly one year or more if Tehran decides to pursue weaponization, according to US intelligence assessments, while continuity of knowledge over the pre-strike stockpile of approximately 440 kg of 60% enriched uranium remains lost. Ongoing Qatari-mediated diplomacy, including proposals for renewed IAEA access and limits on enrichment in exchange for sanctions relief, reinforces trader expectations of no nuclear device before 2027. Scenarios that could still shift odds include a rapid Iranian decision to enrich remaining material covertly at undeclared locations or accelerated rebuilding at sites like Pickaxe Mountain.