**Trader consensus that the Jones Act will not be removed by December 31, 2026, reflects the absence of legislative or executive action to repeal or permanently alter the 1920 Merchant Marine Act’s cabotage rules.** Recent developments center on temporary national-defense waivers issued by the Department of Homeland Security at the request of the Department of Defense, initially in March 2026 and extended through November 15, 2026, to address energy supply disruptions linked to Middle East tensions. These waivers have narrowed in scope, shifting to case-by-case voyage approvals rather than blanket relief, amid pushback from domestic maritime groups including the American Waterways Operators and American Maritime Partnership. Industry stakeholders emphasize protection of U.S. shipbuilding, ownership, flagging, and crewing requirements, while limited calls for broader reform from outside groups have not translated into congressional bills or administration commitments for permanent removal. No scheduled votes, confirmation processes, or policy deadlines point to a full statutory change before year-end, supporting the elevated probability assigned to the “No” outcome.