**Presidential immunity under Article 84 of the South Korean constitution currently shields incumbent Lee Jae-myung from prosecution on pre-existing charges, except in cases of insurrection or treason.** All five ongoing criminal cases—covering election-law violations, bribery, corruption, breach of trust, and misuse of public funds from his time as Seongnam mayor and Gyeonggi governor—have been indefinitely postponed by the courts following his June 2025 election victory. As of mid-2026, no new indictments have been filed, no legislative efforts to lift protections have advanced, and impeachment proceedings remain absent. Lee’s Democratic Party secured strong results in recent local elections, and his approval ratings have stayed elevated near 60 percent. These factors underpin trader consensus that arrest before 2027 is unlikely, absent removal from office or unforeseen new legal actions.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоЛи Чжэ Мён арестован до 2027 года?
Ли Чжэ Мён арестован до 2027 года?
Да
9% вероятность
$525,289 Объем
$525,289 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
9% вероятность
$525,289 Объем
$525,289 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Leader of the Democratic Party of Korea Lee Jae-myung is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Presidential immunity under Article 84 of the South Korean constitution currently shields incumbent Lee Jae-myung from prosecution on pre-existing charges, except in cases of insurrection or treason.** All five ongoing criminal cases—covering election-law violations, bribery, corruption, breach of trust, and misuse of public funds from his time as Seongnam mayor and Gyeonggi governor—have been indefinitely postponed by the courts following his June 2025 election victory.
As of mid-2026, no new indictments have been filed, no legislative efforts to lift protections have advanced, and impeachment proceedings remain absent. Lee’s Democratic Party secured strong results in recent local elections, and his approval ratings have stayed elevated near 60 percent. These factors underpin trader consensus that arrest before 2027 is unlikely, absent removal from office or unforeseen new legal actions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Leader of the Democratic Party of Korea Lee Jae-myung is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Nov 5, 2025, 12:46 PM ET
Объем
$525,289Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 5, 2025, 12:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Leader of the Democratic Party of Korea Lee Jae-myung is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Presidential immunity under Article 84 of the South Korean constitution currently shields incumbent Lee Jae-myung from prosecution on pre-existing charges, except in cases of insurrection or treason.** All five ongoing criminal cases—covering election-law violations, bribery, corruption, breach of trust, and misuse of public funds from his time as Seongnam mayor and Gyeonggi governor—have been indefinitely postponed by the courts following his June 2025 election victory.
As of mid-2026, no new indictments have been filed, no legislative efforts to lift protections have advanced, and impeachment proceedings remain absent. Lee’s Democratic Party secured strong results in recent local elections, and his approval ratings have stayed elevated near 60 percent. These factors underpin trader consensus that arrest before 2027 is unlikely, absent removal from office or unforeseen new legal actions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Leader of the Democratic Party of Korea Lee Jae-myung is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$525,289Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 5, 2025, 12:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Presidential immunity under Article 84 of the South Korean constitution currently shields incumbent Lee Jae-myung from prosecution on pre-existing charges, except in cases of insurrection or treason.** All five ongoing criminal cases—covering election-law violations, bribery, corruption, breach of trust, and misuse of public funds from his time as Seongnam mayor and Gyeonggi governor—have been indefinitely postponed by the courts following his June 2025 election victory. As of mid-2026, no new indictments have been filed, no legislative efforts to lift protections have advanced, and impeachment proceedings remain absent. Lee’s Democratic Party secured strong results in recent local elections, and his approval ratings have stayed elevated near 60 percent. These factors underpin trader consensus that arrest before 2027 is unlikely, absent removal from office or unforeseen new legal actions.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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