**As president of South Korea since June 2025, Lee Jae-myung benefits from institutional protections that have suspended his pending criminal trials, including election-law, development-corruption, and related cases, with courts citing his head-of-state status.** Recent developments reinforce trader expectations that arrest before 2027 is improbable. In a September 18, 2026, press conference, Lee ruled out seeking re-election via constitutional amendment while urging the National Assembly to authorize a special counsel focused solely on alleged prior prosecutorial manipulation, explicitly excluding authority to dispose of already-indicted cases. This approach aims to address his legal matters through legislative and investigative processes rather than courtroom escalation. Approval ratings near 37% and cabinet nomination setbacks have not altered the structural barriers: his term runs until 2030, the Democratic Party holds a parliamentary majority, and justice-system reforms separating investigative and prosecutorial functions are advancing. Historical precedent shows sitting presidents rarely face arrest, and current dynamics favor procedural resolution over detention. Traders price the “No” outcome at 92.8% because these factors create significant practical and political obstacles to arrest within the 2027 window.