Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns near-certainty to a minimum temperature of 5°C or below in Ankara on October 11, reflecting current high-pressure dominance and clear skies that promote strong nocturnal radiative cooling over the Anatolian plateau. Global models such as GFS and regional guidance highlight a cooler air mass and light winds favoring rapid temperature drops after sunset, consistent with October climatology where overnight lows can dip sharply under similar synoptic patterns. Official measurements from the Turkish State Meteorological Service will determine resolution based on the daily minimum recorded at standard stations. Any increase in cloud cover, stronger advection, or model revisions could push readings above the threshold, though recent observational trends support the market-implied outcome.