**Forecast models indicate a southerly flow and persistent cloud cover will drive overnight cooling in Buenos Aires on October 16, with projected minimums clustered between roughly 9–12 °C.** Current conditions feature overcast skies, light drizzle, and southeast winds of 15–20 km/h, which limit radiative cooling while advecting cooler maritime air. Ensemble guidance shows modest spread in the overnight low, with some runs favoring 9–11 °C under clearer breaks and others holding near 12 °C amid continued cloud and wind. This uncertainty explains the market’s near-even split between the 17 °C-or-higher bucket (43 %) and the 7 °C-or-below bucket (40.5 %), as traders weigh the potential for brief clear spells versus sustained overcast conditions. Resolution hinges on the precise timing of any clearing and wind-speed trends through the pre-dawn hours.