Recent GFS and regional model consensus, combined with real-time observations from Cape Town International Airport, supports an overnight minimum near 10°C under moderate northwesterly winds and broken cloud cover that limits radiational cooling. This aligns with typical early-spring conditions where daytime heating to 18–20°C gives way to gradual nocturnal decline without strong cold-air advection. The market-implied odds reflect trader aggregation of these verified forecasts and station data rather than speculation. A sharper wind shift to southerly flow or unexpected clear-sky development could allow temperatures to dip toward 8–9°C by dawn, while persistent cloud and onshore moisture would more likely hold the low at or above the consensus level. Updated NHC-equivalent local briefings and final 24-hour station readings will determine resolution.