Latest numerical weather prediction models, including runs from European and Finnish meteorological agencies, indicate overnight lows in Helsinki on October 16 will likely range from 9–11°C. Persistent southerly to southwesterly flow advecting milder maritime air, combined with extensive cloud cover, is limiting radiative cooling and keeping minimum temperatures well above the 1991–2020 climatological average low of roughly 4°C. This consensus supports elevated implied probabilities for the 6–12°C bins, while the 50% market weighting on 5°C or below reflects residual model spread and the possibility of localized clearer skies or a slightly stronger cold advection signal in updated forecasts. Traders will monitor the next high-resolution model cycles and Finnish Meteorological Institute briefings for any shifts in steering patterns or boundary-layer conditions before resolution.