**Current observational data from Istanbul stations, including Atatürk Airport, combined with consensus across numerical weather models, indicate the overnight minimum stabilized at 15°C under persistent cloud cover, light rain, and northerly flow.** This pattern has prevented stronger radiational cooling typical for mid-October, keeping temperatures above seasonal norms near 14–16°C. High humidity near 90% and steady winds further support the market-implied outcome by limiting temperature drops. Traders’ 100% consensus reflects these verified measurements and the low likelihood of significant revisions before daily close. An unexpected clear-sky window or sharper wind shift could allow a brief dip toward 13–14°C, though recent model runs show minimal divergence on this outcome.