Recent forecast consensus from models including GFS and Open-Meteo indicates Munich's overnight low into October 2 will likely fall in the 12–14°C range under mostly cloudy skies, light northwest winds, and scattered showers that limit radiative cooling. These conditions contrast with typical early-October climatology near 8°C and explain the tight market split between the 50% implied probability for 9°C or below and 47.5% for 19°C or higher, as traders weigh potential model revisions or clearer-sky pockets that could allow further cooling against persistent cloud cover. Official verification tomorrow will resolve the exact minimum, with minor timing differences in frontal passages remaining the key variable.