Forecast consensus from multiple models indicates Warsaw's overnight minimum on October 15 will settle between 4–7°C under clear to partly cloudy skies, light northwest winds under 3 m/s, and high pressure near 1026 hPa that favors radiational cooling after sunset. This setup explains tight market pricing around 4–6°C, with differentiation hinging on exact cloud cover timing, boundary-layer mixing, and whether ground-level readings dip lower than the standard 2-meter sensor at Chopin Airport. Historical October averages near 8–10°C provide context, but current dry air and calm conditions enhance surface heat loss, keeping probabilities balanced until final observational data resolve the precise low.