**Recent price action for the Mega Gengar ex SIR (284/217 from Ascended Heroes) shows clear downward pressure.** The card, which quickly became the set’s top chase after its early-2026 release and commanded raw prices above $1,100–$1,200, has already corrected sharply. TCGPlayer market data from late July recorded a $141 drop to $1,262 amid drying secondary-market sales, with further softening into the $1,100 range by early August as initial collector enthusiasm cooled. Traders on the Polymarket contract appear to be pricing in continued near-term weakness through August 31. Post-hype supply has caught up with demand, typical for modern chase cards once the first wave of sealed-product openings subsides. No major new reprints, promotional tie-ins, or set announcements have emerged in recent weeks to reverse the momentum. Historical patterns for similar Special Illustration Rares show that prices often stabilize or drift lower in the weeks following the peak hype period before any longer-term collector floor is established. With the implied probability of “Down” at 75%, the market consensus reflects the straightforward supply-and-demand reality: elevated raw supply meeting softer immediate buying interest. The next meaningful catalysts would likely be any late-August sales data, graded-population reports, or unexpected news around future Mega-themed products. Absent those, the current trajectory favors further modest softening by month-end.