Merck and Moderna maintain a decade-old collaborative agreement on their personalized mRNA cancer vaccine, recently bolstered by positive Phase 3 INTerpath-001 results in August 2026 that met recurrence-free and distant metastasis-free survival endpoints in high-risk melanoma. This success has driven independent share price gains without triggering acquisition signals, regulatory filings, or credible merger rumors. Merck has pursued separate deals, including the Terns Pharmaceuticals acquisition, while facing its own Keytruda patent pressures. With no disclosed M&A discussions, board activity, or antitrust considerations as of mid-September 2026, trader consensus assigns an 85.7% implied probability to no announcement this year, reflecting the stability of the existing 50/50 economics over full integration.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
12% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
12% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Merck & Co. (MRK) will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with Moderna (MRNA), or vice versa, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying merger or acquisition must encompass both MRK and MRNA or their subsidiaries.
An announcement by MRK or MRNA within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.
A bid or offer announcement without the indication of a settled agreement will not qualify.
Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company announces the acquisition of a controlling interest in the other company. A "controlling interest" refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company's strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from MRK and MRNA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Merck and Moderna maintain a decade-old collaborative agreement on their personalized mRNA cancer vaccine, recently bolstered by positive Phase 3 INTerpath-001 results in August 2026 that met recurrence-free and distant metastasis-free survival endpoints in high-risk melanoma. This success has driven independent share price gains without triggering acquisition signals, regulatory filings, or credible merger rumors. Merck has pursued separate deals, including the Terns Pharmaceuticals acquisition, while facing its own Keytruda patent pressures. With no disclosed M&A discussions, board activity, or antitrust considerations as of mid-September 2026, trader consensus assigns an 85.7% implied probability to no announcement this year, reflecting the stability of the existing 50/50 economics over full integration.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Merck & Co. (MRK) will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with Moderna (MRNA), or vice versa, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying merger or acquisition must encompass both MRK and MRNA or their subsidiaries.
An announcement by MRK or MRNA within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.
A bid or offer announcement without the indication of a settled agreement will not qualify.
Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company announces the acquisition of a controlling interest in the other company. A "controlling interest" refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company's strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from MRK and MRNA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying merger or acquisition must encompass both MRK and MRNA or their subsidiaries.
An announcement by MRK or MRNA within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.
A bid or offer announcement without the indication of a settled agreement will not qualify.
Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company announces the acquisition of a controlling interest in the other company. A "controlling interest" refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company's strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from MRK and MRNA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Aug 19, 2026, 3:58 PM ET
Объем
$467Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 19, 2026, 3:58 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Merck & Co. (MRK) will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with Moderna (MRNA), or vice versa, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying merger or acquisition must encompass both MRK and MRNA or their subsidiaries.
An announcement by MRK or MRNA within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.
A bid or offer announcement without the indication of a settled agreement will not qualify.
Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company announces the acquisition of a controlling interest in the other company. A "controlling interest" refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company's strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from MRK and MRNA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Merck and Moderna maintain a decade-old collaborative agreement on their personalized mRNA cancer vaccine, recently bolstered by positive Phase 3 INTerpath-001 results in August 2026 that met recurrence-free and distant metastasis-free survival endpoints in high-risk melanoma. This success has driven independent share price gains without triggering acquisition signals, regulatory filings, or credible merger rumors. Merck has pursued separate deals, including the Terns Pharmaceuticals acquisition, while facing its own Keytruda patent pressures. With no disclosed M&A discussions, board activity, or antitrust considerations as of mid-September 2026, trader consensus assigns an 85.7% implied probability to no announcement this year, reflecting the stability of the existing 50/50 economics over full integration.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Merck & Co. (MRK) will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with Moderna (MRNA), or vice versa, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying merger or acquisition must encompass both MRK and MRNA or their subsidiaries.
An announcement by MRK or MRNA within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.
A bid or offer announcement without the indication of a settled agreement will not qualify.
Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company announces the acquisition of a controlling interest in the other company. A "controlling interest" refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company's strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from MRK and MRNA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying merger or acquisition must encompass both MRK and MRNA or their subsidiaries.
An announcement by MRK or MRNA within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.
A bid or offer announcement without the indication of a settled agreement will not qualify.
Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company announces the acquisition of a controlling interest in the other company. A "controlling interest" refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company's strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from MRK and MRNA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$467Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 19, 2026, 3:58 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Merck and Moderna maintain a decade-old collaborative agreement on their personalized mRNA cancer vaccine, recently bolstered by positive Phase 3 INTerpath-001 results in August 2026 that met recurrence-free and distant metastasis-free survival endpoints in high-risk melanoma. This success has driven independent share price gains without triggering acquisition signals, regulatory filings, or credible merger rumors. Merck has pursued separate deals, including the Terns Pharmaceuticals acquisition, while facing its own Keytruda patent pressures. With no disclosed M&A discussions, board activity, or antitrust considerations as of mid-September 2026, trader consensus assigns an 85.7% implied probability to no announcement this year, reflecting the stability of the existing 50/50 economics over full integration.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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