NATO’s eastern flank reinforcements, including multinational battlegroups in Poland, the Baltics, and Romania, combined with sustained Allied arms deliveries to Ukraine, have kept the Russia-Ukraine conflict from crossing into Alliance territory since 2022. Recent incidents, such as the March 2026 Iranian missile incident over Turkey, prompted consultations under Article 4 but produced no invocation of Article 5, as confirmed by NATO leadership. With only months remaining until the end of 2026, the absence of verified armed attacks on member states, ongoing diplomatic channels, and the alliance’s emphasis on deterrence rather than escalation have shaped trader consensus that collective-defense obligations are unlikely to be triggered before 2027.