Ongoing low-level SARS-CoV-2 circulation, with emergency department visits remaining very low at 0.2–0.3% and hospitalizations stable or modestly rising in limited regions, underpins the 94.9% market-implied odds against a new 2026 coronavirus pandemic. CDC and WHO surveillance data through mid-August show infections growing in many U.S. states via reproductive number estimates above 1, yet overall incidence, severity, and ICU admissions stay comparable to recent Omicron sublineages such as XFG and BA.3.2, supported by high population immunity and unchanged clinical outcomes. No variants currently meet criteria for markedly increased virulence or transmissibility that would trigger pandemic thresholds. A realistic challenge would require a novel spillover or highly immune-evasive strain causing sustained surges in severe disease, which current genomic and sentinel monitoring have not indicated.