Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors "No" at 94.1% for a new coronavirus pandemic in 2026, backed by CDC and WHO surveillance data confirming no novel coronavirus outbreaks through mid-May. COVID-19 circulates endemically via Omicron subvariants like XFY, PQ.17, and XFZ, with U.S. reproduction number (Rt) estimates showing declines in 26 states as of early May and global cases well below pandemic thresholds. Enhanced genomic monitoring detects no zoonotic spillovers meeting WHO public health emergency criteria. A realistic challenge would involve undetected rapid human-to-human transmission from animal reservoirs, such as bats—echoing a recent Thai coronavirus isolate—but ongoing weekly updates from agencies maintain low risk through year-end.