The closely contested 2026 Senate elections, with Republicans holding a 53-45 majority but defending more seats, form the central driver keeping the market tight between John Thune and Chuck Schumer. Traders price in substantial uncertainty over whether Republicans retain control or Democrats flip the chamber, which would determine the majority leader. Recent developments include Schumer's recruitment of competitive candidates in key battlegrounds such as Ohio and Alaska, alongside ongoing GOP internal dynamics around Thune's leadership amid the upcoming vote. A decisive shift in polling averages, primary outcomes, or turnout patterns in swing states could quickly widen the gap, while continued balance in forecasts sustains the current near-even implied probabilities.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДжон Тун 42%
Чак Шумер 40%
Брайан Шац 5.0%
Том Коттон 3.5%
$151,335 Объем
$151,335 Объем
Джон Тун
42%
Чак Шумер
40%
Брайан Шац
5%
Том Коттон
3%
Джон Баррассо
1%
Стив Дэйнс
1%
Пэтти Мюррей
1%
Кори Букер
<1%
Эми Клобушар
<1%
Марк Келли
<1%
Джон Тун 42%
Чак Шумер 40%
Брайан Шац 5.0%
Том Коттон 3.5%
$151,335 Объем
$151,335 Объем
Джон Тун
42%
Чак Шумер
40%
Брайан Шац
5%
Том Коттон
3%
Джон Баррассо
1%
Стив Дэйнс
1%
Пэтти Мюррей
1%
Кори Букер
<1%
Эми Клобушар
<1%
Марк Келли
<1%
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, at which point it will resolve based on the first announcement of the next Senate Majority Leader from whichever party holds the majority in the U.S. Senate.
If no Majority is established and a leader is not announced by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
Открытие рынка: Mar 23, 2026, 7:08 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, at which point it will resolve based on the first announcement of the next Senate Majority Leader from whichever party holds the majority in the U.S. Senate.
If no Majority is established and a leader is not announced by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The closely contested 2026 Senate elections, with Republicans holding a 53-45 majority but defending more seats, form the central driver keeping the market tight between John Thune and Chuck Schumer. Traders price in substantial uncertainty over whether Republicans retain control or Democrats flip the chamber, which would determine the majority leader. Recent developments include Schumer's recruitment of competitive candidates in key battlegrounds such as Ohio and Alaska, alongside ongoing GOP internal dynamics around Thune's leadership amid the upcoming vote. A decisive shift in polling averages, primary outcomes, or turnout patterns in swing states could quickly widen the gap, while continued balance in forecasts sustains the current near-even implied probabilities.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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