Five candidates are contesting the Ongo Niua 17 by-election on 8 October following the Supreme Court’s bribery conviction and unseating of the 2025 winner, former Finance Minister Lataifaingata’a Tangimana. The fragmented field includes Sitiveni Selui, ‘Aisake Hoatatau Finau, Sione Tuifio Hui, Paea ‘i Vaha Filimoehala, and ‘Aminiasi Tonga Pau’u Tangimana, each drawing support from different villages across the small Niuas constituency. Trader consensus reflects the resulting uncertainty, with no candidate establishing a clear lead. Village-level loyalties, family connections, and limited campaigning time before polling keep probabilities closely matched. Any late endorsements, turnout differences among outer-island communities, or shifts in local alliances could widen gaps ahead of the vote.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоАминиаси Тонга Пау'у Танкимана 56%
'Айсаке Хоататау Финау 46%
Сионе Туифио Хуи 44%
Ситивени Селуи 43%
Аминиаси Тонга Пау'у Танкимана
56%
'Айсаке Хоататау Финау
46%
Сионе Туифио Хуи
44%
Ситивени Селуи
43%
Паэа 'и Ваха Филимоехала
41%
Аминиаси Тонга Пау'у Танкимана 56%
'Айсаке Хоататау Финау 46%
Сионе Туифио Хуи 44%
Ситивени Селуи 43%
Аминиаси Тонга Пау'у Танкимана
56%
'Айсаке Хоататау Финау
46%
Сионе Туифио Хуи
44%
Ситивени Селуи
43%
Паэа 'и Ваха Филимоехала
41%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Ongo Niua 17 by-election to the Legislative Assembly of Tonga.
If the result of this election isn’t known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Tonga Electoral Commission (https://elections.gov.to/; https://www.facebook.com/KomisoniFili).
Открытие рынка: Sep 9, 2026, 6:05 PM ET
Кто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Ongo Niua 17 by-election to the Legislative Assembly of Tonga.
If the result of this election isn’t known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Tonga Electoral Commission (https://elections.gov.to/; https://www.facebook.com/KomisoniFili).
Кто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Five candidates are contesting the Ongo Niua 17 by-election on 8 October following the Supreme Court’s bribery conviction and unseating of the 2025 winner, former Finance Minister Lataifaingata’a Tangimana. The fragmented field includes Sitiveni Selui, ‘Aisake Hoatatau Finau, Sione Tuifio Hui, Paea ‘i Vaha Filimoehala, and ‘Aminiasi Tonga Pau’u Tangimana, each drawing support from different villages across the small Niuas constituency. Trader consensus reflects the resulting uncertainty, with no candidate establishing a clear lead. Village-level loyalties, family connections, and limited campaigning time before polling keep probabilities closely matched. Any late endorsements, turnout differences among outer-island communities, or shifts in local alliances could widen gaps ahead of the vote.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено


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