Pakistan’s ongoing cross-border operations against alleged TTP and affiliated militant sanctuaries in eastern and southern Afghanistan continue to shape trader assessments of further military action. A September 18 suicide and gun attack in Kohat that killed 31 people, claimed by an IMP/TTP-linked group, triggered fresh Pakistani airstrikes on September 21, 24, and into early October targeting sites in Kunar, Paktika, Helmand, and other provinces, with Islamabad reporting militant deaths and destroyed infrastructure. Kabul has condemned the strikes as aggression causing civilian casualties and has responded with drones and cross-border fire. The broader conflict, launched under Operation Ghazab lil-Haq in February 2026 after earlier escalations, features repeated air and artillery exchanges along the Durand Line amid failed diplomacy and UN reports confirming TTP activity inside Afghanistan. Traders are watching for additional retaliatory strikes tied to new attacks inside Pakistan or any shift in Taliban policy on militant groups.