Putin’s May 10 statement that any direct meeting with Zelenskyy would occur only after experts finalize a comprehensive, long-term peace treaty has reinforced trader expectations that no handshake is possible before the June 30 deadline. With U.S.-brokered talks stalled since February and recent battlefield reports showing Ukraine recapturing more territory than it lost in April, neither side has signaled willingness to bridge core differences on security guarantees or territorial issues in the remaining weeks. Prisoner exchanges tied to an earlier brief ceasefire have not advanced broader negotiations, and both leaders continue to condition personal engagement on prior substantive progress. A sudden diplomatic breakthrough or major concession could still shift the timeline, yet current conditions point to prolonged stalemate.