Democratic generic ballot leads of 5–6 points in recent national polls, aligned with typical midterm losses for the president’s party, underpin trader expectations of Republican House seat declines from the current narrow majority near 219. Republicans must defend a map with limited cushion after 2024, while mid-decade redistricting in multiple states has produced mixed but competitive adjustments. Ongoing primaries, candidate recruitment in battlegrounds, and potential shifts in economic or approval indicators through November keep outcomes fluid. These factors concentrate the highest probabilities on totals below 200 seats, with the closest ranges (190–199) reflecting modest net Democratic gains that could still vary several seats based on turnout and late-cycle developments.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоRepublican House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
Republican House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
Below 190 28%
190-194 15%
195-199 14%
210-214 9.8%
$261,085 Объем
$261,085 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Below 190
28%
190-194
15%
195-199
14%
200-204
10%
205-209
8%
210-214
10%
215-219
8%
220-224
9%
225-229
5%
230+
2%
Below 190 28%
190-194 15%
195-199 14%
210-214 9.8%
$261,085 Объем
$261,085 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Below 190
$25,878 Объем
28%
190-194
$10,477 Объем
15%
195-199
$30,184 Объем
14%
200-204
$23,331 Объем
10%
205-209
$37,258 Объем
8%
210-214
$14,047 Объем
10%
215-219
$10,887 Объем
8%
220-224
$55,534 Объем
9%
225-229
$24,101 Объем
5%
230+
$29,387 Объем
2%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.Democratic generic ballot leads of 5–6 points in recent national polls, aligned with typical midterm losses for the president’s party, underpin trader expectations of Republican House seat declines from the current narrow majority near 219. Republicans must defend a map with limited cushion after 2024, while mid-decade redistricting in multiple states has produced mixed but competitive adjustments. Ongoing primaries, candidate recruitment in battlegrounds, and potential shifts in economic or approval indicators through November keep outcomes fluid. These factors concentrate the highest probabilities on totals below 200 seats, with the closest ranges (190–199) reflecting modest net Democratic gains that could still vary several seats based on turnout and late-cycle developments.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Открытие рынка: Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ET
Объем
$261,085Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.Democratic generic ballot leads of 5–6 points in recent national polls, aligned with typical midterm losses for the president’s party, underpin trader expectations of Republican House seat declines from the current narrow majority near 219. Republicans must defend a map with limited cushion after 2024, while mid-decade redistricting in multiple states has produced mixed but competitive adjustments. Ongoing primaries, candidate recruitment in battlegrounds, and potential shifts in economic or approval indicators through November keep outcomes fluid. These factors concentrate the highest probabilities on totals below 200 seats, with the closest ranges (190–199) reflecting modest net Democratic gains that could still vary several seats based on turnout and late-cycle developments.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Объем
$261,085Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Democratic generic ballot leads of 5–6 points in recent national polls, aligned with typical midterm losses for the president’s party, underpin trader expectations of Republican House seat declines from the current narrow majority near 219. Republicans must defend a map with limited cushion after 2024, while mid-decade redistricting in multiple states has produced mixed but competitive adjustments. Ongoing primaries, candidate recruitment in battlegrounds, and potential shifts in economic or approval indicators through November keep outcomes fluid. These factors concentrate the highest probabilities on totals below 200 seats, with the closest ranges (190–199) reflecting modest net Democratic gains that could still vary several seats based on turnout and late-cycle developments.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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