Recent developments in Indian inflation and global energy markets have created balanced trader expectations for the RBI's August 2026 repo rate decision, currently priced near even odds across decrease, no change, and increase outcomes. The central bank held the policy rate at 5.25% with a neutral stance at its June meeting, while lifting its FY27 CPI inflation forecast to 5.1% from 4.6% amid West Asia tensions, higher oil prices, and supply disruptions, even as current readings remain below the 4% target. This upward revision, paired with a trimmed GDP growth projection to 6.6%, underscores competing pressures: potential rate hikes to anchor inflation expectations and defend the rupee versus support for moderating domestic demand. Key swing factors include July CPI prints, monsoon performance, and crude oil trajectories ahead of the early-August MPC meeting. Market-implied probabilities reflect this uncertainty in the near-term policy path.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоNo Change 100%
Increase 100%
Decrease 50%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
5 авг. 2026 г.
Decrease
50%
No Change
100%
Increase
100%
No Change 100%
Increase 100%
Decrease 50%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
5 авг. 2026 г.
Decrease
$0 Объем
50%
No Change
$0 Объем
100%
Increase
$0 Объем
100%
This market will resolve according to the change in the policy repo rate resulting from the Reserve Bank of India Monetary Policy Committee’s August meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of India after its meeting scheduled for August 5, 2026.
This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy statement for their August 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. The statement will be made available here: https://rbi.org.in/Scripts/BS_PressReleaseDisplay.aspx. If no decision on the policy repo rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent developments in Indian inflation and global energy markets have created balanced trader expectations for the RBI's August 2026 repo rate decision, currently priced near even odds across decrease, no change, and increase outcomes. The central bank held the policy rate at 5.25% with a neutral stance at its June meeting, while lifting its FY27 CPI inflation forecast to 5.1% from 4.6% amid West Asia tensions, higher oil prices, and supply disruptions, even as current readings remain below the 4% target. This upward revision, paired with a trimmed GDP growth projection to 6.6%, underscores competing pressures: potential rate hikes to anchor inflation expectations and defend the rupee versus support for moderating domestic demand. Key swing factors include July CPI prints, monsoon performance, and crude oil trajectories ahead of the early-August MPC meeting. Market-implied probabilities reflect this uncertainty in the near-term policy path.
This market will resolve according to the change in the policy repo rate resulting from the Reserve Bank of India Monetary Policy Committee’s August meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of India after its meeting scheduled for August 5, 2026.
This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy statement for their August 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. The statement will be made available here: https://rbi.org.in/Scripts/BS_PressReleaseDisplay.aspx. If no decision on the policy repo rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of India after its meeting scheduled for August 5, 2026.
This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy statement for their August 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. The statement will be made available here: https://rbi.org.in/Scripts/BS_PressReleaseDisplay.aspx. If no decision on the policy repo rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Открытие рынка: Jun 30, 2026, 10:11 PM ET
Объем
$0Дата окончания
5 авг. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jun 30, 2026, 10:11 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in the policy repo rate resulting from the Reserve Bank of India Monetary Policy Committee’s August meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of India after its meeting scheduled for August 5, 2026.
This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy statement for their August 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. The statement will be made available here: https://rbi.org.in/Scripts/BS_PressReleaseDisplay.aspx. If no decision on the policy repo rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent developments in Indian inflation and global energy markets have created balanced trader expectations for the RBI's August 2026 repo rate decision, currently priced near even odds across decrease, no change, and increase outcomes. The central bank held the policy rate at 5.25% with a neutral stance at its June meeting, while lifting its FY27 CPI inflation forecast to 5.1% from 4.6% amid West Asia tensions, higher oil prices, and supply disruptions, even as current readings remain below the 4% target. This upward revision, paired with a trimmed GDP growth projection to 6.6%, underscores competing pressures: potential rate hikes to anchor inflation expectations and defend the rupee versus support for moderating domestic demand. Key swing factors include July CPI prints, monsoon performance, and crude oil trajectories ahead of the early-August MPC meeting. Market-implied probabilities reflect this uncertainty in the near-term policy path.
This market will resolve according to the change in the policy repo rate resulting from the Reserve Bank of India Monetary Policy Committee’s August meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of India after its meeting scheduled for August 5, 2026.
This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy statement for their August 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. The statement will be made available here: https://rbi.org.in/Scripts/BS_PressReleaseDisplay.aspx. If no decision on the policy repo rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of India after its meeting scheduled for August 5, 2026.
This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy statement for their August 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. The statement will be made available here: https://rbi.org.in/Scripts/BS_PressReleaseDisplay.aspx. If no decision on the policy repo rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Объем
$0Дата окончания
5 авг. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jun 30, 2026, 10:11 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent developments in Indian inflation and global energy markets have created balanced trader expectations for the RBI's August 2026 repo rate decision, currently priced near even odds across decrease, no change, and increase outcomes. The central bank held the policy rate at 5.25% with a neutral stance at its June meeting, while lifting its FY27 CPI inflation forecast to 5.1% from 4.6% amid West Asia tensions, higher oil prices, and supply disruptions, even as current readings remain below the 4% target. This upward revision, paired with a trimmed GDP growth projection to 6.6%, underscores competing pressures: potential rate hikes to anchor inflation expectations and defend the rupee versus support for moderating domestic demand. Key swing factors include July CPI prints, monsoon performance, and crude oil trajectories ahead of the early-August MPC meeting. Market-implied probabilities reflect this uncertainty in the near-term policy path.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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