Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 68.5% implied probability that Robert F. Kennedy Jr. will remain HHS Secretary past December 31, 2026, driven by his entrenched position since narrow Senate confirmation in February 2025 (52-48 vote) and active role in recent congressional testimonies before House and Senate committees in April. Despite high-profile exits this week—including chief spokesperson Rich Danker's resignation over flavored e-cigarette policy and FDA Commissioner Marty Makary's departure amid workforce cuts of 3,500 HHS staff—no White House signals indicate imminent dismissal or voluntary withdrawal. Ongoing defenses of agency responses to outbreaks like hantavirus, alongside earlier actions such as U.S. WHO withdrawal in January, underscore his sustained leadership amid partisan criticisms and internal restructuring.