Recent successful flight tests of Starship’s V3 architecture, including the July 2026 thirteenth test with soft splashdown and Raptor 3 engine performance, underpin the 55% market-implied odds for full reusability before 2027. Trader consensus reflects steady progress toward tower catches for both Super Heavy booster and upper stage, alongside in-space propellant transfer demonstrations, yet acknowledges technical hurdles in rapid turnaround and regulatory tolerance for high-cadence operations. Upcoming Flight 14 targeting orbital attempts and potential booster capture later this year serves as the key near-term catalyst that could shift sentiment. SpaceX statements emphasize 2026 timelines for these milestones absent major setbacks, framing the near-even odds as prudent assessment of demonstrated capabilities versus remaining engineering and operational risks.