Recent V3 Starship test flights, including Flight 13 in July 2026, have delivered intact upper-stage recoveries, refined heat-shield performance, and multiple successful Super Heavy booster tower catches using mechanical arms, strengthening trader confidence in rapid iteration toward full reusability. Elon Musk’s August updates projecting a ship catch attempt within months and the first upper-stage reflight by late 2026 or early 2027 align with the current 62% implied probability for operational two-stage reuse before 2028. Upcoming orbital attempts, Raptor 3 engine reliability gains, and in-space refueling demonstrations remain key near-term catalysts, though regulatory approvals and the technical demands of catching a high-velocity Starship upper stage introduce realistic schedule risk.