Recent hotter-than-expected April 2026 core CPI at 2.8% year-over-year, coupled with steady 4.3% unemployment, has pushed back Federal Reserve rate cut expectations to December 2026 or later, per BofA and Goldman Sachs updates, fostering trader caution on S&P 500 valuations amid higher-for-longer Treasury yields around 4.5%. Polymarket's closely contested implied probabilities—26% for $7,000-$7,500, 24% apiece for $6,500-$7,000 and $6,000-$6,500—mirror Wall Street year-end targets of 7,500-7,750 from HSBC and JPMorgan, with the index near 7,400 after record highs. Strong corporate earnings growth and AI-driven momentum counterbalance inflation risks, but upcoming May CPI, PPI, and June FOMC meeting will be pivotal swing factors.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоЧто закроет S&P 500 (SPX) в конце 2026 года?
Что закроет S&P 500 (SPX) в конце 2026 года?
$7,000–$7,500 29%
$6,000–$6,500 25%
$7,500–$8,000 16%
$6,500–$7,000 15%
$25,057 Объем
$25,057 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
< $6,000
14%
$6,000–$6,500
25%
$6,500–$7,000
24%
$7,000–$7,500
28%
$7,500–$8,000
16%
>$8,000
13%
$7,000–$7,500 29%
$6,000–$6,500 25%
$7,500–$8,000 16%
$6,500–$7,000 15%
$25,057 Объем
$25,057 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
< $6,000
$15,544 Объем
14%
$6,000–$6,500
$1,429 Объем
25%
$6,500–$7,000
$2,389 Объем
24%
$7,000–$7,500
$1,114 Объем
28%
$7,500–$8,000
$2,289 Объем
16%
>$8,000
$2,293 Объем
13%
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Recent hotter-than-expected April 2026 core CPI at 2.8% year-over-year, coupled with steady 4.3% unemployment, has pushed back Federal Reserve rate cut expectations to December 2026 or later, per BofA and Goldman Sachs updates, fostering trader caution on S&P 500 valuations amid higher-for-longer Treasury yields around 4.5%. Polymarket's closely contested implied probabilities—26% for $7,000-$7,500, 24% apiece for $6,500-$7,000 and $6,000-$6,500—mirror Wall Street year-end targets of 7,500-7,750 from HSBC and JPMorgan, with the index near 7,400 after record highs. Strong corporate earnings growth and AI-driven momentum counterbalance inflation risks, but upcoming May CPI, PPI, and June FOMC meeting will be pivotal swing factors.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Открытие рынка: Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ET
Объем
$25,057Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/historyResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Recent hotter-than-expected April 2026 core CPI at 2.8% year-over-year, coupled with steady 4.3% unemployment, has pushed back Federal Reserve rate cut expectations to December 2026 or later, per BofA and Goldman Sachs updates, fostering trader caution on S&P 500 valuations amid higher-for-longer Treasury yields around 4.5%. Polymarket's closely contested implied probabilities—26% for $7,000-$7,500, 24% apiece for $6,500-$7,000 and $6,000-$6,500—mirror Wall Street year-end targets of 7,500-7,750 from HSBC and JPMorgan, with the index near 7,400 after record highs. Strong corporate earnings growth and AI-driven momentum counterbalance inflation risks, but upcoming May CPI, PPI, and June FOMC meeting will be pivotal swing factors.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Объем
$25,057Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/historyResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent hotter-than-expected April 2026 core CPI at 2.8% year-over-year, coupled with steady 4.3% unemployment, has pushed back Federal Reserve rate cut expectations to December 2026 or later, per BofA and Goldman Sachs updates, fostering trader caution on S&P 500 valuations amid higher-for-longer Treasury yields around 4.5%. Polymarket's closely contested implied probabilities—26% for $7,000-$7,500, 24% apiece for $6,500-$7,000 and $6,000-$6,500—mirror Wall Street year-end targets of 7,500-7,750 from HSBC and JPMorgan, with the index near 7,400 after record highs. Strong corporate earnings growth and AI-driven momentum counterbalance inflation risks, but upcoming May CPI, PPI, and June FOMC meeting will be pivotal swing factors.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы