Recent Federal Reserve rate hikes to the 3.75-4.00% target range amid 3.7% PCE inflation have tempered near-term optimism, even as S&P 500 earnings growth—particularly in AI-exposed tech—supports levels around the current 7,765. Trader consensus reflected in the market-implied odds favors an end-2026 close above 7,500, with the >8,000 bucket leading at 36.5%, consistent with Wall Street targets clustering between 7,400 and 8,100 and modest further gains projected from current valuations. Persistent inflation risks and potential additional policy restraint remain key swing factors, while upcoming FOMC communications and fourth-quarter earnings will likely refine positioning. This real-money aggregation captures skin-in-the-game assessments of macroeconomic headwinds versus corporate fundamentals.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено>$8,000 29%
$7,500–$8,000 24%
$7,000–$7,500 15%
$6,500–$7,000 10%
$44,819 Объем
$44,819 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
< $6,000
8%
$6,000–$6,500
7%
$6,500–$7,000
10%
$7,000–$7,500
21%
$7,500–$8,000
24%
>$8,000
36%
>$8,000 29%
$7,500–$8,000 24%
$7,000–$7,500 15%
$6,500–$7,000 10%
$44,819 Объем
$44,819 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
< $6,000
$23,712 Объем
8%
$6,000–$6,500
$2,380 Объем
7%
$6,500–$7,000
$4,657 Объем
10%
$7,000–$7,500
$2,774 Объем
21%
$7,500–$8,000
$4,333 Объем
24%
>$8,000
$6,963 Объем
36%
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Recent Federal Reserve rate hikes to the 3.75-4.00% target range amid 3.7% PCE inflation have tempered near-term optimism, even as S&P 500 earnings growth—particularly in AI-exposed tech—supports levels around the current 7,765. Trader consensus reflected in the market-implied odds favors an end-2026 close above 7,500, with the >8,000 bucket leading at 36.5%, consistent with Wall Street targets clustering between 7,400 and 8,100 and modest further gains projected from current valuations. Persistent inflation risks and potential additional policy restraint remain key swing factors, while upcoming FOMC communications and fourth-quarter earnings will likely refine positioning. This real-money aggregation captures skin-in-the-game assessments of macroeconomic headwinds versus corporate fundamentals.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Открытие рынка: Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ET
Объем
$44,819Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/historyКто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Recent Federal Reserve rate hikes to the 3.75-4.00% target range amid 3.7% PCE inflation have tempered near-term optimism, even as S&P 500 earnings growth—particularly in AI-exposed tech—supports levels around the current 7,765. Trader consensus reflected in the market-implied odds favors an end-2026 close above 7,500, with the >8,000 bucket leading at 36.5%, consistent with Wall Street targets clustering between 7,400 and 8,100 and modest further gains projected from current valuations. Persistent inflation risks and potential additional policy restraint remain key swing factors, while upcoming FOMC communications and fourth-quarter earnings will likely refine positioning. This real-money aggregation captures skin-in-the-game assessments of macroeconomic headwinds versus corporate fundamentals.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Объем
$44,819Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/historyКто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...Recent Federal Reserve rate hikes to the 3.75-4.00% target range amid 3.7% PCE inflation have tempered near-term optimism, even as S&P 500 earnings growth—particularly in AI-exposed tech—supports levels around the current 7,765. Trader consensus reflected in the market-implied odds favors an end-2026 close above 7,500, with the >8,000 bucket leading at 36.5%, consistent with Wall Street targets clustering between 7,400 and 8,100 and modest further gains projected from current valuations. Persistent inflation risks and potential additional policy restraint remain key swing factors, while upcoming FOMC communications and fourth-quarter earnings will likely refine positioning. This real-money aggregation captures skin-in-the-game assessments of macroeconomic headwinds versus corporate fundamentals.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы