Persistent geopolitical tensions from the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict, which began in late February 2026, continue to constrain Strait of Hormuz traffic well below pre-war norms of roughly 140 daily transits. Iranian forces maintain selective permissions for limited vessels—primarily those linked to China or other favored nations—while imposing tolls and route restrictions, resulting in recent weekly crossings as low as 18 to 38 ships amid ongoing risks of attacks and a U.S. naval presence enforcing blockades. This has kept volumes at 5-10% of historical levels into mid-May, elevating oil and LNG supply concerns that underpin elevated energy prices. With no clear diplomatic breakthrough or full ceasefire enforcement on the horizon, trader consensus prices in sustained disruption through June, tempered only by the slim possibility of accelerated selective openings.