The U.S. capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro in a January 2026 special operation established no territorial control or sustained ground presence, consistent with the administration’s framing of regional policy around counter-narcotics interdiction, cartel designations, and sanctions rather than regime-change invasions. Subsequent actions have remained limited to maritime strikes, joint operations with Ecuador and Colombia against designated groups, and pressure on Cuba, with no announcements or deployments signaling broader land offensives. Halfway through the year, the absence of conditions historically preceding full-scale interventions has reinforced trader consensus that an invasion of any Latin American country is unlikely before December 31.