Paxton's decisive 27-point victory over incumbent John Cornyn in the May 26 Republican primary runoff has driven near-certain trader consensus on the 25–30% margin bracket. Lower overall turnout disproportionately reduced Cornyn's support in urban areas, while Paxton's base held steady following President Trump's endorsement and a campaign emphasizing alignment with conservative priorities. Official tallies show Paxton at roughly 64% statewide, consistent with pre-runoff polling trends and historical patterns of incumbent vulnerability in Texas GOP contests. Late certification adjustments, recounts, or court rulings on specific counties could theoretically shift the final certified margin, though such developments remain unlikely given the size of the gap and rapid concession.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоTexas Senate Republican Primary Runoff Margin of Victory (Larger Brackets)
Texas Senate Republican Primary Runoff Margin of Victory (Larger Brackets)
Paxton 25–30% 99.6%
Paxton 20–25% <1%
Paxton 30%+ <1%
Paxton 15–20% <1%
$146,233 Объем
$146,233 Объем
26 мая 2026 г.
Paxton 30%+
No
Paxton 25–30%
Yes
Paxton 20–25%
No
Paxton 15–20%
No
Paxton 10–15%
No
Paxton 5–10%
No
Paxton 0–5%
No
Cornyn Win
No
Other
No
Paxton 25–30% 99.6%
Paxton 20–25% <1%
Paxton 30%+ <1%
Paxton 15–20% <1%
$146,233 Объем
$146,233 Объем
26 мая 2026 г.
Paxton 30%+
$42,849 Объем
No
Paxton 25–30%
$28,379 Объем
Yes
Paxton 20–25%
$11,881 Объем
No
Paxton 15–20%
$16,977 Объем
No
Paxton 10–15%
$18,327 Объем
No
Paxton 5–10%
$9,859 Объем
No
Paxton 0–5%
$13,840 Объем
No
Cornyn Win
$1,450 Объем
No
Other
$2,671 Объем
No
The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Paxton's decisive 27-point victory over incumbent John Cornyn in the May 26 Republican primary runoff has driven near-certain trader consensus on the 25–30% margin bracket. Lower overall turnout disproportionately reduced Cornyn's support in urban areas, while Paxton's base held steady following President Trump's endorsement and a campaign emphasizing alignment with conservative priorities. Official tallies show Paxton at roughly 64% statewide, consistent with pre-runoff polling trends and historical patterns of incumbent vulnerability in Texas GOP contests. Late certification adjustments, recounts, or court rulings on specific counties could theoretically shift the final certified margin, though such developments remain unlikely given the size of the gap and rapid concession.
The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Открытие рынка: May 22, 2026, 5:50 PM ET
Объем
$146,233Дата окончания
26 мая 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 22, 2026, 5:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Предложенный исход: No
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: No
The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Paxton's decisive 27-point victory over incumbent John Cornyn in the May 26 Republican primary runoff has driven near-certain trader consensus on the 25–30% margin bracket. Lower overall turnout disproportionately reduced Cornyn's support in urban areas, while Paxton's base held steady following President Trump's endorsement and a campaign emphasizing alignment with conservative priorities. Official tallies show Paxton at roughly 64% statewide, consistent with pre-runoff polling trends and historical patterns of incumbent vulnerability in Texas GOP contests. Late certification adjustments, recounts, or court rulings on specific counties could theoretically shift the final certified margin, though such developments remain unlikely given the size of the gap and rapid concession.
The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Объем
$146,233Дата окончания
26 мая 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 22, 2026, 5:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Предложенный исход: No
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: No
Paxton's decisive 27-point victory over incumbent John Cornyn in the May 26 Republican primary runoff has driven near-certain trader consensus on the 25–30% margin bracket. Lower overall turnout disproportionately reduced Cornyn's support in urban areas, while Paxton's base held steady following President Trump's endorsement and a campaign emphasizing alignment with conservative priorities. Official tallies show Paxton at roughly 64% statewide, consistent with pre-runoff polling trends and historical patterns of incumbent vulnerability in Texas GOP contests. Late certification adjustments, recounts, or court rulings on specific counties could theoretically shift the final certified margin, though such developments remain unlikely given the size of the gap and rapid concession.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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