Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the AKP have sustained advocacy for a new “civilian constitution,” including the May 2025 appointment of a ten-member legal commission and renewed public calls through mid-2026, yet the market assigns only an 18% chance of a referendum announcement by year-end. Ongoing commission work and optimistic statements from the parliament speaker point to continued preparation, but procedural requirements, coalition arithmetic, and competing priorities such as the PKK peace process have kept momentum short of a formal announcement. Securing the 360 parliamentary votes needed for a referendum remains the primary barrier, with current alliances falling short and broader opposition engagement uncertain.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
17% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
17% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the AKP have sustained advocacy for a new “civilian constitution,” including the May 2025 appointment of a ten-member legal commission and renewed public calls through mid-2026, yet the market assigns only an 18% chance of a referendum announcement by year-end. Ongoing commission work and optimistic statements from the parliament speaker point to continued preparation, but procedural requirements, coalition arithmetic, and competing priorities such as the PKK peace process have kept momentum short of a formal announcement. Securing the 360 parliamentary votes needed for a referendum remains the primary barrier, with current alliances falling short and broader opposition engagement uncertain.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Apr 1, 2026, 4:01 PM ET
Объем
$6,170Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 1, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the AKP have sustained advocacy for a new “civilian constitution,” including the May 2025 appointment of a ten-member legal commission and renewed public calls through mid-2026, yet the market assigns only an 18% chance of a referendum announcement by year-end. Ongoing commission work and optimistic statements from the parliament speaker point to continued preparation, but procedural requirements, coalition arithmetic, and competing priorities such as the PKK peace process have kept momentum short of a formal announcement. Securing the 360 parliamentary votes needed for a referendum remains the primary barrier, with current alliances falling short and broader opposition engagement uncertain.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$6,170Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 1, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the AKP have sustained advocacy for a new “civilian constitution,” including the May 2025 appointment of a ten-member legal commission and renewed public calls through mid-2026, yet the market assigns only an 18% chance of a referendum announcement by year-end. Ongoing commission work and optimistic statements from the parliament speaker point to continued preparation, but procedural requirements, coalition arithmetic, and competing priorities such as the PKK peace process have kept momentum short of a formal announcement. Securing the 360 parliamentary votes needed for a referendum remains the primary barrier, with current alliances falling short and broader opposition engagement uncertain.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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