Recent upward revisions to UK CPI projections, driven by elevated global energy prices from Middle East conflict and resulting imported inflation pressures, underpin the near-even implied probabilities between the 3.5–3.9% and 2.5–2.9% ranges for 2026 annual inflation. June 2026 CPI stood at 2.6%, with core measures easing, yet the Bank of England’s July Monetary Policy Report projects a pickup to 3.2% by Q4 amid indirect effects on food and goods prices. Labor market slack may limit second-round wage pressures, creating uncertainty around shock persistence versus base effects. Traders price these dynamics with skin in the game, while upcoming CPI releases and BoE communications through September could shift the balance.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоЕжегодная инфляция Великобритании 2026
3,5–3,9% 23.8%
2,5–2,9% 23.4%
4,0–4,4% 8%
4,5%+ 8%
$55,637 Объем
$55,637 Объем
<1,0%
<1%
1,0–1,4%
4%
1,5–1,9%
2%
2,0–2,4%
6%
2,5–2,9%
23%
3,0–3,4%
-
3,5–3,9%
24%
4,0–4,4%
8%
4,5%+
8%
3,5–3,9% 23.8%
2,5–2,9% 23.4%
4,0–4,4% 8%
4,5%+ 8%
$55,637 Объем
$55,637 Объем
<1,0%
<1%
1,0–1,4%
4%
1,5–1,9%
2%
2,0–2,4%
6%
2,5–2,9%
23%
3,0–3,4%
-
3,5–3,9%
24%
4,0–4,4%
8%
4,5%+
8%
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases). The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 12-month rate (%)" for the relevant month.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendar
Открытие рынка: Jan 21, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases). The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 12-month rate (%)" for the relevant month.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendar
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent upward revisions to UK CPI projections, driven by elevated global energy prices from Middle East conflict and resulting imported inflation pressures, underpin the near-even implied probabilities between the 3.5–3.9% and 2.5–2.9% ranges for 2026 annual inflation. June 2026 CPI stood at 2.6%, with core measures easing, yet the Bank of England’s July Monetary Policy Report projects a pickup to 3.2% by Q4 amid indirect effects on food and goods prices. Labor market slack may limit second-round wage pressures, creating uncertainty around shock persistence versus base effects. Traders price these dynamics with skin in the game, while upcoming CPI releases and BoE communications through September could shift the balance.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено



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