Congressional inaction on comprehensive federal AI safety legislation continues to shape trader views, with numerous bills introduced in the 119th Congress yet none advancing to enactment despite hearings and proposals on frontier model oversight. State-level measures have proliferated instead, including frontier AI transparency and risk frameworks enacted in California, New York, and Illinois during 2025-2026, creating a patchwork that reduces pressure for immediate federal intervention. The Trump administration has pursued executive actions on AI innovation, security evaluations, and agency partnerships rather than broad statutory mandates, while prior attempts to preempt state rules or establish national standards stalled. With limited legislative calendar remaining before 2027 and entrenched partisan and industry differences over regulatory scope, the consensus implied probability reflects these structural and timing barriers to passage.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
13% вероятность
$101,400 Объем
$101,400 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
13% вероятность
$101,400 Объем
$101,400 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Congressional inaction on comprehensive federal AI safety legislation continues to shape trader views, with numerous bills introduced in the 119th Congress yet none advancing to enactment despite hearings and proposals on frontier model oversight. State-level measures have proliferated instead, including frontier AI transparency and risk frameworks enacted in California, New York, and Illinois during 2025-2026, creating a patchwork that reduces pressure for immediate federal intervention. The Trump administration has pursued executive actions on AI innovation, security evaluations, and agency partnerships rather than broad statutory mandates, while prior attempts to preempt state rules or establish national standards stalled. With limited legislative calendar remaining before 2027 and entrenched partisan and industry differences over regulatory scope, the consensus implied probability reflects these structural and timing barriers to passage.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ET
Объем
$101,400Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Congressional inaction on comprehensive federal AI safety legislation continues to shape trader views, with numerous bills introduced in the 119th Congress yet none advancing to enactment despite hearings and proposals on frontier model oversight. State-level measures have proliferated instead, including frontier AI transparency and risk frameworks enacted in California, New York, and Illinois during 2025-2026, creating a patchwork that reduces pressure for immediate federal intervention. The Trump administration has pursued executive actions on AI innovation, security evaluations, and agency partnerships rather than broad statutory mandates, while prior attempts to preempt state rules or establish national standards stalled. With limited legislative calendar remaining before 2027 and entrenched partisan and industry differences over regulatory scope, the consensus implied probability reflects these structural and timing barriers to passage.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$101,400Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Congressional inaction on comprehensive federal AI safety legislation continues to shape trader views, with numerous bills introduced in the 119th Congress yet none advancing to enactment despite hearings and proposals on frontier model oversight. State-level measures have proliferated instead, including frontier AI transparency and risk frameworks enacted in California, New York, and Illinois during 2025-2026, creating a patchwork that reduces pressure for immediate federal intervention. The Trump administration has pursued executive actions on AI innovation, security evaluations, and agency partnerships rather than broad statutory mandates, while prior attempts to preempt state rules or establish national standards stalled. With limited legislative calendar remaining before 2027 and entrenched partisan and industry differences over regulatory scope, the consensus implied probability reflects these structural and timing barriers to passage.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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