Recent U.S. economic releases, including a softer July employment report and July CPI showing year-over-year inflation at 3.4% with core at 2.5%, underpin the closely contested Polymarket odds for Q3 2026 GDP growth. Trader consensus assigns the highest implied probability to ≥3.0% at 33%, followed by 2.0–2.5% at 25%, reflecting resilient consumer spending and AI-driven business investment offset by a cooling labor market and moderating inflation trajectory. Nowcasts range from 2.0% to 5.8% annualized, while full-year 2026 forecasts cluster near 2.1–2.5%. Key upcoming catalysts include the August employment report, the Q2 GDP second estimate on August 26, and further inflation prints that could shift monetary policy expectations and risk appetite.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено≥3.0% 33%
2.0–2.5% 25%
2.5–3.0% 21%
1.0–1.5% 8.4%
$18,664 Объем
$18,664 Объем
29 окт. 2026 г.
<0.5%
4%
0.5–1.0%
4%
1.0–1.5%
8%
1.5–2.0%
8%
2.0–2.5%
25%
2.5–3.0%
21%
≥3.0%
33%
≥3.0% 33%
2.0–2.5% 25%
2.5–3.0% 21%
1.0–1.5% 8.4%
$18,664 Объем
$18,664 Объем
29 окт. 2026 г.
<0.5%
$760 Объем
4%
0.5–1.0%
$470 Объем
4%
1.0–1.5%
$546 Объем
8%
1.5–2.0%
$599 Объем
8%
2.0–2.5%
$1,743 Объем
25%
2.5–3.0%
$3,152 Объем
21%
≥3.0%
$11,393 Объем
33%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Recent U.S. economic releases, including a softer July employment report and July CPI showing year-over-year inflation at 3.4% with core at 2.5%, underpin the closely contested Polymarket odds for Q3 2026 GDP growth. Trader consensus assigns the highest implied probability to ≥3.0% at 33%, followed by 2.0–2.5% at 25%, reflecting resilient consumer spending and AI-driven business investment offset by a cooling labor market and moderating inflation trajectory. Nowcasts range from 2.0% to 5.8% annualized, while full-year 2026 forecasts cluster near 2.1–2.5%. Key upcoming catalysts include the August employment report, the Q2 GDP second estimate on August 26, and further inflation prints that could shift monetary policy expectations and risk appetite.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Открытие рынка: Jul 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ET
Объем
$18,664Дата окончания
29 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Recent U.S. economic releases, including a softer July employment report and July CPI showing year-over-year inflation at 3.4% with core at 2.5%, underpin the closely contested Polymarket odds for Q3 2026 GDP growth. Trader consensus assigns the highest implied probability to ≥3.0% at 33%, followed by 2.0–2.5% at 25%, reflecting resilient consumer spending and AI-driven business investment offset by a cooling labor market and moderating inflation trajectory. Nowcasts range from 2.0% to 5.8% annualized, while full-year 2026 forecasts cluster near 2.1–2.5%. Key upcoming catalysts include the August employment report, the Q2 GDP second estimate on August 26, and further inflation prints that could shift monetary policy expectations and risk appetite.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Объем
$18,664Дата окончания
29 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent U.S. economic releases, including a softer July employment report and July CPI showing year-over-year inflation at 3.4% with core at 2.5%, underpin the closely contested Polymarket odds for Q3 2026 GDP growth. Trader consensus assigns the highest implied probability to ≥3.0% at 33%, followed by 2.0–2.5% at 25%, reflecting resilient consumer spending and AI-driven business investment offset by a cooling labor market and moderating inflation trajectory. Nowcasts range from 2.0% to 5.8% annualized, while full-year 2026 forecasts cluster near 2.1–2.5%. Key upcoming catalysts include the August employment report, the Q2 GDP second estimate on August 26, and further inflation prints that could shift monetary policy expectations and risk appetite.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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