The US Commerce Department imposed an export control directive on June 12, 2026, directing Anthropic to suspend all access to Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5 for foreign nationals worldwide, including non-citizen employees in the United States, citing national security risks tied to the model's code-generation capabilities. Anthropic complied by disabling the models for every user and publicly stated that it believes the directive is wrong, while more than 100 security experts have urged rescission. The move followed a simple "fix this code" prompt that bypassed safeguards, occurring days after the June 9 public release of Fable 5. Trader focus centers on whether diplomatic, legal, or industry pressure will prompt the administration to lift or narrow the restrictions before key deadlines, amid ongoing uncertainty over enforcement scope and potential court challenges.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено$242,781 Объем
1 июл. 2026 г.
June 30
99%
$242,781 Объем
June 30
$230,295 Объем
99%
On June 12, 2026, the US government directed Anthropic to suspend access to Fable 5 for foreign nationals, whether inside or outside the United States (see: https://www.anthropic.com/news/fable-mythos-access).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or Anthropic publicly and officially announce that this directive has been rescinded, waived, modified, or otherwise lifted such that blocking public access to Claude Fable 5 for all non-US nationals is no longer directed by the US federal government by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying announcement must clearly indicate that guidance from the United States federal government no longer directs Anthropic to block public access to Claude Fable 5 for all foreign nationals. A partial lifting of the restriction will qualify, provided it allows renewed public access for at least some non-US nationals. Anthropic announcements that Fable 5 will be released for public access, without announcing qualifying US government guidance, will not count.
Announcements must specifically relate to the model Fable 5. Qualifying announcements may include that revised US government guidance allows public access to Fable 5 for non-US nationals with additional model safety restrictions; however, if such restrictions cause Anthropic to release the model under a different name, this will not qualify.
The relevant access must be public; adjusted guidance from the United States government that access to Fable 5 may be restored for select companies will not qualify.
Written public statements from Donald Trump, including posts from his personal Truth Social account, will count. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from President Trump, the US government, and Anthropic; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The US Commerce Department imposed an export control directive on June 12, 2026, directing Anthropic to suspend all access to Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5 for foreign nationals worldwide, including non-citizen employees in the United States, citing national security risks tied to the model's code-generation capabilities. Anthropic complied by disabling the models for every user and publicly stated that it believes the directive is wrong, while more than 100 security experts have urged rescission. The move followed a simple "fix this code" prompt that bypassed safeguards, occurring days after the June 9 public release of Fable 5. Trader focus centers on whether diplomatic, legal, or industry pressure will prompt the administration to lift or narrow the restrictions before key deadlines, amid ongoing uncertainty over enforcement scope and potential court challenges.
On June 12, 2026, the US government directed Anthropic to suspend access to Fable 5 for foreign nationals, whether inside or outside the United States (see: https://www.anthropic.com/news/fable-mythos-access).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or Anthropic publicly and officially announce that this directive has been rescinded, waived, modified, or otherwise lifted such that blocking public access to Claude Fable 5 for all non-US nationals is no longer directed by the US federal government by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying announcement must clearly indicate that guidance from the United States federal government no longer directs Anthropic to block public access to Claude Fable 5 for all foreign nationals. A partial lifting of the restriction will qualify, provided it allows renewed public access for at least some non-US nationals. Anthropic announcements that Fable 5 will be released for public access, without announcing qualifying US government guidance, will not count.
Announcements must specifically relate to the model Fable 5. Qualifying announcements may include that revised US government guidance allows public access to Fable 5 for non-US nationals with additional model safety restrictions; however, if such restrictions cause Anthropic to release the model under a different name, this will not qualify.
The relevant access must be public; adjusted guidance from the United States government that access to Fable 5 may be restored for select companies will not qualify.
Written public statements from Donald Trump, including posts from his personal Truth Social account, will count. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from President Trump, the US government, and Anthropic; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or Anthropic publicly and officially announce that this directive has been rescinded, waived, modified, or otherwise lifted such that blocking public access to Claude Fable 5 for all non-US nationals is no longer directed by the US federal government by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying announcement must clearly indicate that guidance from the United States federal government no longer directs Anthropic to block public access to Claude Fable 5 for all foreign nationals. A partial lifting of the restriction will qualify, provided it allows renewed public access for at least some non-US nationals. Anthropic announcements that Fable 5 will be released for public access, without announcing qualifying US government guidance, will not count.
Announcements must specifically relate to the model Fable 5. Qualifying announcements may include that revised US government guidance allows public access to Fable 5 for non-US nationals with additional model safety restrictions; however, if such restrictions cause Anthropic to release the model under a different name, this will not qualify.
The relevant access must be public; adjusted guidance from the United States government that access to Fable 5 may be restored for select companies will not qualify.
Written public statements from Donald Trump, including posts from his personal Truth Social account, will count. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from President Trump, the US government, and Anthropic; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Jun 13, 2026, 8:02 PM ET
Объем
$242,781Дата окончания
1 июл. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jun 13, 2026, 8:02 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...On June 12, 2026, the US government directed Anthropic to suspend access to Fable 5 for foreign nationals, whether inside or outside the United States (see: https://www.anthropic.com/news/fable-mythos-access).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or Anthropic publicly and officially announce that this directive has been rescinded, waived, modified, or otherwise lifted such that blocking public access to Claude Fable 5 for all non-US nationals is no longer directed by the US federal government by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying announcement must clearly indicate that guidance from the United States federal government no longer directs Anthropic to block public access to Claude Fable 5 for all foreign nationals. A partial lifting of the restriction will qualify, provided it allows renewed public access for at least some non-US nationals. Anthropic announcements that Fable 5 will be released for public access, without announcing qualifying US government guidance, will not count.
Announcements must specifically relate to the model Fable 5. Qualifying announcements may include that revised US government guidance allows public access to Fable 5 for non-US nationals with additional model safety restrictions; however, if such restrictions cause Anthropic to release the model under a different name, this will not qualify.
The relevant access must be public; adjusted guidance from the United States government that access to Fable 5 may be restored for select companies will not qualify.
Written public statements from Donald Trump, including posts from his personal Truth Social account, will count. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from President Trump, the US government, and Anthropic; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The US Commerce Department imposed an export control directive on June 12, 2026, directing Anthropic to suspend all access to Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5 for foreign nationals worldwide, including non-citizen employees in the United States, citing national security risks tied to the model's code-generation capabilities. Anthropic complied by disabling the models for every user and publicly stated that it believes the directive is wrong, while more than 100 security experts have urged rescission. The move followed a simple "fix this code" prompt that bypassed safeguards, occurring days after the June 9 public release of Fable 5. Trader focus centers on whether diplomatic, legal, or industry pressure will prompt the administration to lift or narrow the restrictions before key deadlines, amid ongoing uncertainty over enforcement scope and potential court challenges.
On June 12, 2026, the US government directed Anthropic to suspend access to Fable 5 for foreign nationals, whether inside or outside the United States (see: https://www.anthropic.com/news/fable-mythos-access).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or Anthropic publicly and officially announce that this directive has been rescinded, waived, modified, or otherwise lifted such that blocking public access to Claude Fable 5 for all non-US nationals is no longer directed by the US federal government by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying announcement must clearly indicate that guidance from the United States federal government no longer directs Anthropic to block public access to Claude Fable 5 for all foreign nationals. A partial lifting of the restriction will qualify, provided it allows renewed public access for at least some non-US nationals. Anthropic announcements that Fable 5 will be released for public access, without announcing qualifying US government guidance, will not count.
Announcements must specifically relate to the model Fable 5. Qualifying announcements may include that revised US government guidance allows public access to Fable 5 for non-US nationals with additional model safety restrictions; however, if such restrictions cause Anthropic to release the model under a different name, this will not qualify.
The relevant access must be public; adjusted guidance from the United States government that access to Fable 5 may be restored for select companies will not qualify.
Written public statements from Donald Trump, including posts from his personal Truth Social account, will count. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from President Trump, the US government, and Anthropic; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or Anthropic publicly and officially announce that this directive has been rescinded, waived, modified, or otherwise lifted such that blocking public access to Claude Fable 5 for all non-US nationals is no longer directed by the US federal government by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying announcement must clearly indicate that guidance from the United States federal government no longer directs Anthropic to block public access to Claude Fable 5 for all foreign nationals. A partial lifting of the restriction will qualify, provided it allows renewed public access for at least some non-US nationals. Anthropic announcements that Fable 5 will be released for public access, without announcing qualifying US government guidance, will not count.
Announcements must specifically relate to the model Fable 5. Qualifying announcements may include that revised US government guidance allows public access to Fable 5 for non-US nationals with additional model safety restrictions; however, if such restrictions cause Anthropic to release the model under a different name, this will not qualify.
The relevant access must be public; adjusted guidance from the United States government that access to Fable 5 may be restored for select companies will not qualify.
Written public statements from Donald Trump, including posts from his personal Truth Social account, will count. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from President Trump, the US government, and Anthropic; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$242,781Дата окончания
1 июл. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jun 13, 2026, 8:02 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The US Commerce Department imposed an export control directive on June 12, 2026, directing Anthropic to suspend all access to Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5 for foreign nationals worldwide, including non-citizen employees in the United States, citing national security risks tied to the model's code-generation capabilities. Anthropic complied by disabling the models for every user and publicly stated that it believes the directive is wrong, while more than 100 security experts have urged rescission. The move followed a simple "fix this code" prompt that bypassed safeguards, occurring days after the June 9 public release of Fable 5. Trader focus centers on whether diplomatic, legal, or industry pressure will prompt the administration to lift or narrow the restrictions before key deadlines, amid ongoing uncertainty over enforcement scope and potential court challenges.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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