Wells Fargo's third-quarter 2026 earnings release on October 13 carries a 99.5% market-implied probability of missing consensus estimates, driven primarily by anticipated pressure on net interest income and overall revenue. Analysts project NII around $12.63 billion, reflecting lower yields on floating-rate assets, elevated deposit costs, and slower balance-sheet expansion following the prior regulatory asset cap removal, alongside revenue forecasts near $22.3 billion that imply only modest year-over-year growth. These headwinds outweigh expected EPS growth to roughly $1.85, as traders price in limited upside from loan demand or noninterest income in the current rate environment. Tail risks that could still produce a beat include stronger-than-forecast credit quality reducing provisions, accelerated cost discipline, or favorable share repurchases lifting per-share results beyond the narrow consensus band.