Rafael Leão’s summer transfer saga remains fluid heading into mid-August 2026, with AC Milan holding the highest implied probability at 36.8% that the Portugal winger stays put despite his public comments signaling openness to a new league. His contract runs until 2028, but Milan’s new manager Ruben Amorim has deemed him surplus and set a €50–70 million valuation after a mixed campaign. Concrete interest centers on Turkish clubs, where Galatasaray and Fenerbahçe have tabled bids in the €35–47 million range plus substantial salary offers nearing €10 million annually; recent intermediary activity points toward Galatasaray as the frontrunner. Premier League sides including Manchester United, Arsenal, Liverpool, and Chelsea have received offers or monitored Leão but show limited commitment, preserving competitive dynamics across multiple outcomes and keeping the market tightly bunched.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоAC Milan 36.8%
Фенербахче 12%
Liverpool 9%
Chelsea 5.5%
$56,489 Объем
$56,489 Объем
AC Milan
37%
Фенербахче
12%
Liverpool
9%
Chelsea
5%
Al-Hilal
5%
Barcelona
5%
Manchester United
5%
Arsenal
5%
Paris Saint-Germain
4%
Bayern Munich
3%
Бешикташ
2%
Inter Milan
1%
AC Milan 36.8%
Фенербахче 12%
Liverpool 9%
Chelsea 5.5%
$56,489 Объем
$56,489 Объем
AC Milan
37%
Фенербахче
12%
Liverpool
9%
Chelsea
5%
Al-Hilal
5%
Barcelona
5%
Manchester United
5%
Arsenal
5%
Paris Saint-Germain
4%
Bayern Munich
3%
Бешикташ
2%
Inter Milan
1%
If Rafael Leao does not officially join a new team by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "AC Milan".
If Rafael Leao joins a team that is not listed, this market will resolve to "Other".
If Rafael Leao is released, retires, or is not under contract with any professional team by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
An official transfer announcement prior to the market's close date will immediately resolve this market to the corresponding option.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official announcements from AC Milan and/or the acquiring team. A consensus of credible media reporting may also be used to resolve the market.
Открытие рынка: Jun 15, 2026, 2:49 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...If Rafael Leao does not officially join a new team by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "AC Milan".
If Rafael Leao joins a team that is not listed, this market will resolve to "Other".
If Rafael Leao is released, retires, or is not under contract with any professional team by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
An official transfer announcement prior to the market's close date will immediately resolve this market to the corresponding option.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official announcements from AC Milan and/or the acquiring team. A consensus of credible media reporting may also be used to resolve the market.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Rafael Leão’s summer transfer saga remains fluid heading into mid-August 2026, with AC Milan holding the highest implied probability at 36.8% that the Portugal winger stays put despite his public comments signaling openness to a new league. His contract runs until 2028, but Milan’s new manager Ruben Amorim has deemed him surplus and set a €50–70 million valuation after a mixed campaign. Concrete interest centers on Turkish clubs, where Galatasaray and Fenerbahçe have tabled bids in the €35–47 million range plus substantial salary offers nearing €10 million annually; recent intermediary activity points toward Galatasaray as the frontrunner. Premier League sides including Manchester United, Arsenal, Liverpool, and Chelsea have received offers or monitored Leão but show limited commitment, preserving competitive dynamics across multiple outcomes and keeping the market tightly bunched.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено



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