As of mid-2026, traders assign the highest implied probability to no large language model reaching a 1550 Elo rating on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard this year because recent releases from leading labs have delivered incremental rather than transformative gains in capability. Anthropic’s Claude series maintains the strongest position among individual companies due to consistent benchmark improvements and focused scaling efforts, while Google’s Gemini updates and xAI’s iterative Grok releases have yet to close the gap at the pace the market once anticipated. OpenAI’s trajectory appears tempered by internal prioritization of safety and deployment constraints. The market reflects skepticism around aggressive 2026 timelines amid typical product slippage, hardware limits, and competitive but non-breakthrough advances across the AI ecosystem.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоКакой ИИ компании впервые попадет в 1550 на арене чат-ботов в 2026 году?
Какой ИИ компании впервые попадет в 1550 на арене чат-ботов в 2026 году?
Ни одной в 2026 58%
Anthropic 32%
Google 11%
OpenAI 2.1%
$54,452 Объем
$54,452 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Ни одной в 2026
58%
Anthropic
32%
11%
OpenAI
2%
xAI
2%
Alibaba
1%
Mistral
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Ни одной в 2026 58%
Anthropic 32%
Google 11%
OpenAI 2.1%
$54,452 Объем
$54,452 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Ни одной в 2026
$10,084 Объем
58%
Anthropic
$6,982 Объем
32%
$7,388 Объем
11%
OpenAI
$7,444 Объем
2%
xAI
$5,414 Объем
2%
Alibaba
$4,750 Объем
1%
Mistral
$3,688 Объем
<1%
DeepSeek
$4,795 Объем
<1%
Z.ai
$3,908 Объем
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.As of mid-2026, traders assign the highest implied probability to no large language model reaching a 1550 Elo rating on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard this year because recent releases from leading labs have delivered incremental rather than transformative gains in capability. Anthropic’s Claude series maintains the strongest position among individual companies due to consistent benchmark improvements and focused scaling efforts, while Google’s Gemini updates and xAI’s iterative Grok releases have yet to close the gap at the pace the market once anticipated. OpenAI’s trajectory appears tempered by internal prioritization of safety and deployment constraints. The market reflects skepticism around aggressive 2026 timelines amid typical product slippage, hardware limits, and competitive but non-breakthrough advances across the AI ecosystem.
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Открытие рынка: Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ET
Объем
$54,452Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.As of mid-2026, traders assign the highest implied probability to no large language model reaching a 1550 Elo rating on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard this year because recent releases from leading labs have delivered incremental rather than transformative gains in capability. Anthropic’s Claude series maintains the strongest position among individual companies due to consistent benchmark improvements and focused scaling efforts, while Google’s Gemini updates and xAI’s iterative Grok releases have yet to close the gap at the pace the market once anticipated. OpenAI’s trajectory appears tempered by internal prioritization of safety and deployment constraints. The market reflects skepticism around aggressive 2026 timelines amid typical product slippage, hardware limits, and competitive but non-breakthrough advances across the AI ecosystem.
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Объем
$54,452Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...As of mid-2026, traders assign the highest implied probability to no large language model reaching a 1550 Elo rating on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard this year because recent releases from leading labs have delivered incremental rather than transformative gains in capability. Anthropic’s Claude series maintains the strongest position among individual companies due to consistent benchmark improvements and focused scaling efforts, while Google’s Gemini updates and xAI’s iterative Grok releases have yet to close the gap at the pace the market once anticipated. OpenAI’s trajectory appears tempered by internal prioritization of safety and deployment constraints. The market reflects skepticism around aggressive 2026 timelines amid typical product slippage, hardware limits, and competitive but non-breakthrough advances across the AI ecosystem.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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