Trader consensus heavily favors no replacement for Iran at the 2026 FIFA World Cup, with 87.4% implied probability, driven by FIFA President Gianni Infantino's April confirmation that Iran's schedule remains unchanged despite U.S. political pressures and protests demanding a ban akin to Russia's over Ukraine. Iran's football federation reiterated last week they will "definitely" participate, underscored by yesterday's massive public sendoff for Team Melli in Tehran ahead of Group G matches starting June 15 versus New Zealand at SoFi Stadium. Italy's 7.5% reflects earlier U.S. envoy suggestions as a UEFA substitute, while UAE trails as the next AFC qualifier. Scenarios challenging this include unforeseen geopolitical escalation prompting FIFA suspension or Iranian withdrawal over travel bans to "hostile" nations, though preparations signal stability.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоКакая команда заменит Иран на чемпионате мира по футболу?
Какая команда заменит Иран на чемпионате мира по футболу?
No Replacement 87.3%
UAE 4.4%
Italy 2.9%
Other <1%
$29,199 Объем
$29,199 Объем

No Replacement
87%

UAE
4%

Italy
3%

Other
1%

Bolivia
<1%
No Replacement 87.3%
UAE 4.4%
Italy 2.9%
Other <1%
$29,199 Объем
$29,199 Объем

No Replacement
87%

UAE
4%

Italy
3%

Other
1%

Bolivia
<1%
If an unlisted men’s national team is officially announced to replace Iran at the 2026 FIFA World Cup, this market will resolve to “Other”
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after December 31 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is no confirmation that any team will replace Iran within that timeframe, the corresponding market will resolve to “No Replacement”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Открытие рынка: Apr 24, 2026, 4:43 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...If an unlisted men’s national team is officially announced to replace Iran at the 2026 FIFA World Cup, this market will resolve to “Other”
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after December 31 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is no confirmation that any team will replace Iran within that timeframe, the corresponding market will resolve to “No Replacement”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus heavily favors no replacement for Iran at the 2026 FIFA World Cup, with 87.4% implied probability, driven by FIFA President Gianni Infantino's April confirmation that Iran's schedule remains unchanged despite U.S. political pressures and protests demanding a ban akin to Russia's over Ukraine. Iran's football federation reiterated last week they will "definitely" participate, underscored by yesterday's massive public sendoff for Team Melli in Tehran ahead of Group G matches starting June 15 versus New Zealand at SoFi Stadium. Italy's 7.5% reflects earlier U.S. envoy suggestions as a UEFA substitute, while UAE trails as the next AFC qualifier. Scenarios challenging this include unforeseen geopolitical escalation prompting FIFA suspension or Iranian withdrawal over travel bans to "hostile" nations, though preparations signal stability.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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