The leading market outcome of no cabinet departures before 2027 reflects the absence of major resignations, firings, or confirmed exits through mid-2026, consistent with historical patterns where second-term cabinets often stabilize after initial confirmations. Traders assign RFK Jr. the next-highest probability amid ongoing policy debates in his department, including public differences over health initiatives and regulatory priorities that could prompt an earlier departure. Lower odds for figures such as Scott Bessent, Chris Wright, and Pete Hegseth align with fewer visible institutional conflicts or scheduled reviews in their respective roles. Upcoming Senate oversight hearings and administration policy deadlines remain potential catalysts that could shift these implied probabilities if new developments emerge before the end of 2026.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоNone before 2027 46.7%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 32.5%
Chris Wright 5.0%
Susie Wiles 4.4%
$29,025 Объем
$29,025 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
None before 2027
47%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
32%
Chris Wright
5%
Susie Wiles
4%
Pete Hegseth
4%
Scott Bessent
6%
Kelly Loeffler
3%
Russell T. Vought
2%
Sean Duffy
2%
Lee Zeldin
1%
Marco Rubio
1%
Howard Lutnick
1%
J.D. Vance
1%
Scott Turner
1%
Brooke Rollins
1%
Jamieson Greer
1%
Doug Collins
1%
John Ratcliffe
1%
Linda McMahon
1%
Mike Waltz
1%
Doug Burgum
<1%
None before 2027 46.7%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 32.5%
Chris Wright 5.0%
Susie Wiles 4.4%
$29,025 Объем
$29,025 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
None before 2027
$5,291 Объем
47%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
$9,816 Объем
32%
Chris Wright
$700 Объем
5%
Susie Wiles
$3,153 Объем
4%
Pete Hegseth
$929 Объем
4%
Scott Bessent
$1,103 Объем
6%
Kelly Loeffler
$746 Объем
3%
Russell T. Vought
$463 Объем
2%
Sean Duffy
$551 Объем
2%
Lee Zeldin
$403 Объем
1%
Marco Rubio
$488 Объем
1%
Howard Lutnick
$727 Объем
1%
J.D. Vance
$476 Объем
1%
Scott Turner
$341 Объем
1%
Brooke Rollins
$504 Объем
1%
Jamieson Greer
$468 Объем
1%
Doug Collins
$487 Объем
1%
John Ratcliffe
$507 Объем
1%
Linda McMahon
$828 Объем
1%
Mike Waltz
$508 Объем
1%
Doug Burgum
$535 Объем
<1%
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.The leading market outcome of no cabinet departures before 2027 reflects the absence of major resignations, firings, or confirmed exits through mid-2026, consistent with historical patterns where second-term cabinets often stabilize after initial confirmations. Traders assign RFK Jr. the next-highest probability amid ongoing policy debates in his department, including public differences over health initiatives and regulatory priorities that could prompt an earlier departure. Lower odds for figures such as Scott Bessent, Chris Wright, and Pete Hegseth align with fewer visible institutional conflicts or scheduled reviews in their respective roles. Upcoming Senate oversight hearings and administration policy deadlines remain potential catalysts that could shift these implied probabilities if new developments emerge before the end of 2026.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Открытие рынка: May 22, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
Объем
$29,025Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 22, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.The leading market outcome of no cabinet departures before 2027 reflects the absence of major resignations, firings, or confirmed exits through mid-2026, consistent with historical patterns where second-term cabinets often stabilize after initial confirmations. Traders assign RFK Jr. the next-highest probability amid ongoing policy debates in his department, including public differences over health initiatives and regulatory priorities that could prompt an earlier departure. Lower odds for figures such as Scott Bessent, Chris Wright, and Pete Hegseth align with fewer visible institutional conflicts or scheduled reviews in their respective roles. Upcoming Senate oversight hearings and administration policy deadlines remain potential catalysts that could shift these implied probabilities if new developments emerge before the end of 2026.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Объем
$29,025Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 22, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The leading market outcome of no cabinet departures before 2027 reflects the absence of major resignations, firings, or confirmed exits through mid-2026, consistent with historical patterns where second-term cabinets often stabilize after initial confirmations. Traders assign RFK Jr. the next-highest probability amid ongoing policy debates in his department, including public differences over health initiatives and regulatory priorities that could prompt an earlier departure. Lower odds for figures such as Scott Bessent, Chris Wright, and Pete Hegseth align with fewer visible institutional conflicts or scheduled reviews in their respective roles. Upcoming Senate oversight hearings and administration policy deadlines remain potential catalysts that could shift these implied probabilities if new developments emerge before the end of 2026.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы