Several Trump cabinet officials face overlapping pressures from recent high-profile actions and lingering allegations, keeping trader odds tightly clustered among the top contenders. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth draws the most attention for overseeing Pentagon personnel shifts and U.S. strikes on Iranian targets, alongside earlier reports of internal friction, though his alignment with the president provides some insulation. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick encounters scrutiny over past associations highlighted in public records, while former National Security Adviser Mike Waltz remains in consideration after his earlier reassignment. Multiple prior exits, including Tulsi Gabbard and others, have normalized turnover without yet isolating one figure. Congressional oversight, new disclosures, or shifts in administration priorities could widen gaps among these probabilities before the end of the current term.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоMike Waltz 34.4%
Lee Zeldin 33%
Howard Lutnick 31%
John Ratcliffe 29.4%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
31 дек. 2026 г.
Mike Waltz
34%
Lee Zeldin
33%
Howard Lutnick
31%
John Ratcliffe
29%
Linda McMahon
19%
Jamieson Greer
19%
Russell T. Vought
18%
None before 2027
16%
Sean Duffy
19%
Scott Bessent
25%
Kelly Loeffler
6%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
5%
Doug Collins
5%
Marco Rubio
5%
J.D. Vance
5%
Brooke Rollins
15%
Chris Wright
4%
Scott Turner
1%
Pete Hegseth
-
Doug Burgum
-
Susie Wiles
30%
Mike Waltz 34.4%
Lee Zeldin 33%
Howard Lutnick 31%
John Ratcliffe 29.4%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
31 дек. 2026 г.
Mike Waltz
$126 Объем
34%
Lee Zeldin
$132 Объем
33%
Howard Lutnick
$250 Объем
31%
John Ratcliffe
$115 Объем
29%
Linda McMahon
$209 Объем
19%
Jamieson Greer
$80 Объем
19%
Russell T. Vought
$150 Объем
18%
None before 2027
$226 Объем
16%
Sean Duffy
$162 Объем
19%
Scott Bessent
$469 Объем
25%
Kelly Loeffler
$308 Объем
6%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
$101 Объем
5%
Doug Collins
$76 Объем
5%
Marco Rubio
$75 Объем
5%
J.D. Vance
$171 Объем
5%
Brooke Rollins
$230 Объем
15%
Chris Wright
$132 Объем
4%
Scott Turner
$80 Объем
1%
Pete Hegseth
$118 Объем
-
Doug Burgum
$171 Объем
-
Susie Wiles
$227 Объем
30%
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Several Trump cabinet officials face overlapping pressures from recent high-profile actions and lingering allegations, keeping trader odds tightly clustered among the top contenders. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth draws the most attention for overseeing Pentagon personnel shifts and U.S. strikes on Iranian targets, alongside earlier reports of internal friction, though his alignment with the president provides some insulation. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick encounters scrutiny over past associations highlighted in public records, while former National Security Adviser Mike Waltz remains in consideration after his earlier reassignment. Multiple prior exits, including Tulsi Gabbard and others, have normalized turnover without yet isolating one figure. Congressional oversight, new disclosures, or shifts in administration priorities could widen gaps among these probabilities before the end of the current term.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Открытие рынка: May 22, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
Объем
$3,607Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 22, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Several Trump cabinet officials face overlapping pressures from recent high-profile actions and lingering allegations, keeping trader odds tightly clustered among the top contenders. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth draws the most attention for overseeing Pentagon personnel shifts and U.S. strikes on Iranian targets, alongside earlier reports of internal friction, though his alignment with the president provides some insulation. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick encounters scrutiny over past associations highlighted in public records, while former National Security Adviser Mike Waltz remains in consideration after his earlier reassignment. Multiple prior exits, including Tulsi Gabbard and others, have normalized turnover without yet isolating one figure. Congressional oversight, new disclosures, or shifts in administration priorities could widen gaps among these probabilities before the end of the current term.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Объем
$3,607Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 22, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Several Trump cabinet officials face overlapping pressures from recent high-profile actions and lingering allegations, keeping trader odds tightly clustered among the top contenders. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth draws the most attention for overseeing Pentagon personnel shifts and U.S. strikes on Iranian targets, alongside earlier reports of internal friction, though his alignment with the president provides some insulation. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick encounters scrutiny over past associations highlighted in public records, while former National Security Adviser Mike Waltz remains in consideration after his earlier reassignment. Multiple prior exits, including Tulsi Gabbard and others, have normalized turnover without yet isolating one figure. Congressional oversight, new disclosures, or shifts in administration priorities could widen gaps among these probabilities before the end of the current term.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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