The Sudanese Armed Forces' recapture of Khartoum in early 2025 and subsequent consolidation of control, including the government's return to the capital by January 2026, underpin trader expectations that the Rapid Support Forces will not regain the city by June 30. Recent RSF activity has been limited to sporadic drone strikes on infrastructure such as the international airport, without evidence of coordinated ground advances or territorial gains near the capital. The RSF remains focused on Darfur and Kordofan fronts, where it holds consolidated positions but faces ongoing SAF counteroffensives across multiple states. Structural barriers include RSF logistical overextension, SAF air superiority, and the absence of conditions for a rapid reversal before the deadline. A sudden SAF withdrawal from the capital or large-scale RSF reinforcement could theoretically shift dynamics, though current front lines and resource allocation make such developments improbable within the resolution window.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоЗахватят ли РНФ Хартум к 30 июня?
Захватят ли РНФ Хартум к 30 июня?
Да
$21,756 Объем
$21,756 Объем
30 июн. 2026 г.
Да
$21,756 Объем
$21,756 Объем
30 июн. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) capture Khartoum (https://maps.app.goo.gl/7iTPsRRJEJf4Mrjb6) by June 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The city will be considered captured if the Rapid Support forces have established military control over the "Khartoum International Airport" (مطار الخرطوم الدولي: https://maps.app.goo.gl/ZLUq7QjMi9L3CQcV7) by the resolution date.
If the RSF comes into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants the RSF de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once the RSF captures the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that the RSF has captured the specified point.The Sudanese Armed Forces' recapture of Khartoum in early 2025 and subsequent consolidation of control, including the government's return to the capital by January 2026, underpin trader expectations that the Rapid Support Forces will not regain the city by June 30. Recent RSF activity has been limited to sporadic drone strikes on infrastructure such as the international airport, without evidence of coordinated ground advances or territorial gains near the capital. The RSF remains focused on Darfur and Kordofan fronts, where it holds consolidated positions but faces ongoing SAF counteroffensives across multiple states. Structural barriers include RSF logistical overextension, SAF air superiority, and the absence of conditions for a rapid reversal before the deadline. A sudden SAF withdrawal from the capital or large-scale RSF reinforcement could theoretically shift dynamics, though current front lines and resource allocation make such developments improbable within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) capture Khartoum (https://maps.app.goo.gl/7iTPsRRJEJf4Mrjb6) by June 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The city will be considered captured if the Rapid Support forces have established military control over the "Khartoum International Airport" (مطار الخرطوم الدولي: https://maps.app.goo.gl/ZLUq7QjMi9L3CQcV7) by the resolution date.
If the RSF comes into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants the RSF de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once the RSF captures the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that the RSF has captured the specified point.
The city will be considered captured if the Rapid Support forces have established military control over the "Khartoum International Airport" (مطار الخرطوم الدولي: https://maps.app.goo.gl/ZLUq7QjMi9L3CQcV7) by the resolution date.
If the RSF comes into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants the RSF de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once the RSF captures the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that the RSF has captured the specified point.
Открытие рынка: Dec 23, 2025, 6:39 AM ET
Объем
$21,756Дата окончания
30 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 23, 2025, 6:39 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) capture Khartoum (https://maps.app.goo.gl/7iTPsRRJEJf4Mrjb6) by June 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The city will be considered captured if the Rapid Support forces have established military control over the "Khartoum International Airport" (مطار الخرطوم الدولي: https://maps.app.goo.gl/ZLUq7QjMi9L3CQcV7) by the resolution date.
If the RSF comes into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants the RSF de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once the RSF captures the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that the RSF has captured the specified point.The Sudanese Armed Forces' recapture of Khartoum in early 2025 and subsequent consolidation of control, including the government's return to the capital by January 2026, underpin trader expectations that the Rapid Support Forces will not regain the city by June 30. Recent RSF activity has been limited to sporadic drone strikes on infrastructure such as the international airport, without evidence of coordinated ground advances or territorial gains near the capital. The RSF remains focused on Darfur and Kordofan fronts, where it holds consolidated positions but faces ongoing SAF counteroffensives across multiple states. Structural barriers include RSF logistical overextension, SAF air superiority, and the absence of conditions for a rapid reversal before the deadline. A sudden SAF withdrawal from the capital or large-scale RSF reinforcement could theoretically shift dynamics, though current front lines and resource allocation make such developments improbable within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) capture Khartoum (https://maps.app.goo.gl/7iTPsRRJEJf4Mrjb6) by June 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The city will be considered captured if the Rapid Support forces have established military control over the "Khartoum International Airport" (مطار الخرطوم الدولي: https://maps.app.goo.gl/ZLUq7QjMi9L3CQcV7) by the resolution date.
If the RSF comes into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants the RSF de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once the RSF captures the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that the RSF has captured the specified point.
The city will be considered captured if the Rapid Support forces have established military control over the "Khartoum International Airport" (مطار الخرطوم الدولي: https://maps.app.goo.gl/ZLUq7QjMi9L3CQcV7) by the resolution date.
If the RSF comes into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants the RSF de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once the RSF captures the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that the RSF has captured the specified point.
Объем
$21,756Дата окончания
30 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 23, 2025, 6:39 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Sudanese Armed Forces' recapture of Khartoum in early 2025 and subsequent consolidation of control, including the government's return to the capital by January 2026, underpin trader expectations that the Rapid Support Forces will not regain the city by June 30. Recent RSF activity has been limited to sporadic drone strikes on infrastructure such as the international airport, without evidence of coordinated ground advances or territorial gains near the capital. The RSF remains focused on Darfur and Kordofan fronts, where it holds consolidated positions but faces ongoing SAF counteroffensives across multiple states. Structural barriers include RSF logistical overextension, SAF air superiority, and the absence of conditions for a rapid reversal before the deadline. A sudden SAF withdrawal from the capital or large-scale RSF reinforcement could theoretically shift dynamics, though current front lines and resource allocation make such developments improbable within the resolution window.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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