The US military's January 2026 capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro through a targeted special operations raid remains the sole recent precedent for such an action. Subsequent developments, including late-February US-Israeli strikes that killed Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, involved lethal force rather than apprehension and custody. Related Polymarket contracts on figures such as Cuba's Raúl Castro or remaining Iranian leadership show similarly low implied probabilities of US detention by year-end. No official announcements, Senate authorizations, or visible force deployments indicate planning for a comparable operation against another sitting head of state. The Maduro mission required extensive prior intelligence, regional staging, and legal framing around narcotics charges, factors not replicated elsewhere amid ongoing stabilization efforts in Venezuela and Middle East de-escalation priorities. Traders assign the current 94.5% "No" probability based on these structural and temporal constraints through December 31.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоЗахватят ли США еще одного мирового лидера в 2026 году?
Захватят ли США еще одного мирового лидера в 2026 году?
Да
6% вероятность
$80,821 Объем
$80,821 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
6% вероятность
$80,821 Объем
$80,821 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (including U.S. military, CIA, or any U.S. federal law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation that results in the capture of a qualifying head of state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The US military's January 2026 capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro through a targeted special operations raid remains the sole recent precedent for such an action. Subsequent developments, including late-February US-Israeli strikes that killed Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, involved lethal force rather than apprehension and custody. Related Polymarket contracts on figures such as Cuba's Raúl Castro or remaining Iranian leadership show similarly low implied probabilities of US detention by year-end.
No official announcements, Senate authorizations, or visible force deployments indicate planning for a comparable operation against another sitting head of state. The Maduro mission required extensive prior intelligence, regional staging, and legal framing around narcotics charges, factors not replicated elsewhere amid ongoing stabilization efforts in Venezuela and Middle East de-escalation priorities. Traders assign the current 94.5% "No" probability based on these structural and temporal constraints through December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (including U.S. military, CIA, or any U.S. federal law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation that results in the capture of a qualifying head of state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Jan 5, 2026, 2:11 PM ET
Объем
$80,821Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 5, 2026, 2:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (including U.S. military, CIA, or any U.S. federal law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation that results in the capture of a qualifying head of state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The US military's January 2026 capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro through a targeted special operations raid remains the sole recent precedent for such an action. Subsequent developments, including late-February US-Israeli strikes that killed Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, involved lethal force rather than apprehension and custody. Related Polymarket contracts on figures such as Cuba's Raúl Castro or remaining Iranian leadership show similarly low implied probabilities of US detention by year-end.
No official announcements, Senate authorizations, or visible force deployments indicate planning for a comparable operation against another sitting head of state. The Maduro mission required extensive prior intelligence, regional staging, and legal framing around narcotics charges, factors not replicated elsewhere amid ongoing stabilization efforts in Venezuela and Middle East de-escalation priorities. Traders assign the current 94.5% "No" probability based on these structural and temporal constraints through December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (including U.S. military, CIA, or any U.S. federal law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation that results in the capture of a qualifying head of state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$80,821Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 5, 2026, 2:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The US military's January 2026 capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro through a targeted special operations raid remains the sole recent precedent for such an action. Subsequent developments, including late-February US-Israeli strikes that killed Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, involved lethal force rather than apprehension and custody. Related Polymarket contracts on figures such as Cuba's Raúl Castro or remaining Iranian leadership show similarly low implied probabilities of US detention by year-end. No official announcements, Senate authorizations, or visible force deployments indicate planning for a comparable operation against another sitting head of state. The Maduro mission required extensive prior intelligence, regional staging, and legal framing around narcotics charges, factors not replicated elsewhere amid ongoing stabilization efforts in Venezuela and Middle East de-escalation priorities. Traders assign the current 94.5% "No" probability based on these structural and temporal constraints through December 31.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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