The US military's January 2026 operation that seized Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro amid sanctions enforcement and oil disputes has not prompted comparable actions against other heads of state through mid-May. No verified military or law-enforcement operations targeting additional leaders in Cuba, Russia, Iran, or elsewhere have occurred in the subsequent months, despite periodic US strikes on Iranian-linked targets and continued regional pressure on Venezuela. Traders assign high barriers to repeat interventions, citing diplomatic isolation risks, legal constraints on direct actions against sovereign officials, and potential for broader escalation. Absent new executive directives or major geopolitical triggers in the remaining months of 2026, the consensus reflects low likelihood of another such capture.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоЗахватят ли США еще одного мирового лидера в 2026 году?
Захватят ли США еще одного мирового лидера в 2026 году?
Да
$50,920 Объем
$50,920 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
$50,920 Объем
$50,920 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (including U.S. military, CIA, or any U.S. federal law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation that results in the capture of a qualifying head of state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The US military's January 2026 operation that seized Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro amid sanctions enforcement and oil disputes has not prompted comparable actions against other heads of state through mid-May. No verified military or law-enforcement operations targeting additional leaders in Cuba, Russia, Iran, or elsewhere have occurred in the subsequent months, despite periodic US strikes on Iranian-linked targets and continued regional pressure on Venezuela. Traders assign high barriers to repeat interventions, citing diplomatic isolation risks, legal constraints on direct actions against sovereign officials, and potential for broader escalation. Absent new executive directives or major geopolitical triggers in the remaining months of 2026, the consensus reflects low likelihood of another such capture.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (including U.S. military, CIA, or any U.S. federal law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation that results in the capture of a qualifying head of state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Jan 5, 2026, 2:11 PM ET
Объем
$50,920Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 5, 2026, 2:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (including U.S. military, CIA, or any U.S. federal law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation that results in the capture of a qualifying head of state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The US military's January 2026 operation that seized Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro amid sanctions enforcement and oil disputes has not prompted comparable actions against other heads of state through mid-May. No verified military or law-enforcement operations targeting additional leaders in Cuba, Russia, Iran, or elsewhere have occurred in the subsequent months, despite periodic US strikes on Iranian-linked targets and continued regional pressure on Venezuela. Traders assign high barriers to repeat interventions, citing diplomatic isolation risks, legal constraints on direct actions against sovereign officials, and potential for broader escalation. Absent new executive directives or major geopolitical triggers in the remaining months of 2026, the consensus reflects low likelihood of another such capture.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (including U.S. military, CIA, or any U.S. federal law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation that results in the capture of a qualifying head of state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$50,920Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 5, 2026, 2:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The US military's January 2026 operation that seized Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro amid sanctions enforcement and oil disputes has not prompted comparable actions against other heads of state through mid-May. No verified military or law-enforcement operations targeting additional leaders in Cuba, Russia, Iran, or elsewhere have occurred in the subsequent months, despite periodic US strikes on Iranian-linked targets and continued regional pressure on Venezuela. Traders assign high barriers to repeat interventions, citing diplomatic isolation risks, legal constraints on direct actions against sovereign officials, and potential for broader escalation. Absent new executive directives or major geopolitical triggers in the remaining months of 2026, the consensus reflects low likelihood of another such capture.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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