**Trader consensus on a 94.5% probability of “No” reflects the absence of any confirmed or imminent U.S. ground operations to capture additional sitting heads of state before year-end.** The January 2026 military raid that seized Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and delivered him to U.S. custody for drug-trafficking charges remains the sole qualifying event this year. That operation relied on longstanding indictments, detailed intelligence, and a narrow set of political and military conditions not currently replicated against other leaders. Recent developments, including the September extradition of suspects tied to the 2021 assassination of Haiti’s Jovenel Moïse and ongoing diplomatic engagement with Venezuela’s acting leadership, involve legal accountability or stabilization rather than new captures. With roughly three months remaining and no reported planning or escalations pointing to another high-risk extraction, market pricing aligns with the limited window and lack of visible catalysts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоЗахватят ли США еще одного мирового лидера в 2026 году?
Захватят ли США еще одного мирового лидера в 2026 году?
Да
6% вероятность
$82,755 Объем
$82,755 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
6% вероятность
$82,755 Объем
$82,755 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (including U.S. military, CIA, or any U.S. federal law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation that results in the capture of a qualifying head of state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Trader consensus on a 94.5% probability of “No” reflects the absence of any confirmed or imminent U.S. ground operations to capture additional sitting heads of state before year-end.** The January 2026 military raid that seized Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and delivered him to U.S. custody for drug-trafficking charges remains the sole qualifying event this year. That operation relied on longstanding indictments, detailed intelligence, and a narrow set of political and military conditions not currently replicated against other leaders. Recent developments, including the September extradition of suspects tied to the 2021 assassination of Haiti’s Jovenel Moïse and ongoing diplomatic engagement with Venezuela’s acting leadership, involve legal accountability or stabilization rather than new captures. With roughly three months remaining and no reported planning or escalations pointing to another high-risk extraction, market pricing aligns with the limited window and lack of visible catalysts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (including U.S. military, CIA, or any U.S. federal law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation that results in the capture of a qualifying head of state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Jan 5, 2026, 2:11 PM ET
Объем
$82,755Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 5, 2026, 2:11 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (including U.S. military, CIA, or any U.S. federal law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation that results in the capture of a qualifying head of state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Trader consensus on a 94.5% probability of “No” reflects the absence of any confirmed or imminent U.S. ground operations to capture additional sitting heads of state before year-end.** The January 2026 military raid that seized Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and delivered him to U.S. custody for drug-trafficking charges remains the sole qualifying event this year. That operation relied on longstanding indictments, detailed intelligence, and a narrow set of political and military conditions not currently replicated against other leaders. Recent developments, including the September extradition of suspects tied to the 2021 assassination of Haiti’s Jovenel Moïse and ongoing diplomatic engagement with Venezuela’s acting leadership, involve legal accountability or stabilization rather than new captures. With roughly three months remaining and no reported planning or escalations pointing to another high-risk extraction, market pricing aligns with the limited window and lack of visible catalysts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (including U.S. military, CIA, or any U.S. federal law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation that results in the capture of a qualifying head of state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$82,755Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 5, 2026, 2:11 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...**Trader consensus on a 94.5% probability of “No” reflects the absence of any confirmed or imminent U.S. ground operations to capture additional sitting heads of state before year-end.** The January 2026 military raid that seized Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and delivered him to U.S. custody for drug-trafficking charges remains the sole qualifying event this year. That operation relied on longstanding indictments, detailed intelligence, and a narrow set of political and military conditions not currently replicated against other leaders. Recent developments, including the September extradition of suspects tied to the 2021 assassination of Haiti’s Jovenel Moïse and ongoing diplomatic engagement with Venezuela’s acting leadership, involve legal accountability or stabilization rather than new captures. With roughly three months remaining and no reported planning or escalations pointing to another high-risk extraction, market pricing aligns with the limited window and lack of visible catalysts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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