Polymarket traders reflect near-certain consensus with a 97% implied probability on "No" for President Trump reducing the U.S. federal budget deficit before 2027, driven by fiscal year 2026 year-to-date outlays already reaching a $954 billion deficit through early May—on pace for $2 trillion annually per OMB and CBO projections, surpassing FY2025's $1.8 trillion shortfall. Surging defense spending and interest payments, outpacing revenue gains from tariffs and income taxes, have widened the gap, with the 12-month rolling deficit hitting $1.7 trillion in April amid no enacted cuts. Tail risks include an unforeseen revenue surge from economic overperformance or mid-year austerity measures before September 30, 2026 resolution, though policy momentum favors expansion.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
31 дек. 2026 г.
The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.Polymarket traders reflect near-certain consensus with a 97% implied probability on "No" for President Trump reducing the U.S. federal budget deficit before 2027, driven by fiscal year 2026 year-to-date outlays already reaching a $954 billion deficit through early May—on pace for $2 trillion annually per OMB and CBO projections, surpassing FY2025's $1.8 trillion shortfall. Surging defense spending and interest payments, outpacing revenue gains from tariffs and income taxes, have widened the gap, with the 12-month rolling deficit hitting $1.7 trillion in April amid no enacted cuts. Tail risks include an unforeseen revenue surge from economic overperformance or mid-year austerity measures before September 30, 2026 resolution, though policy momentum favors expansion.
The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.
Открытие рынка: Nov 5, 2025, 2:13 PM ET
Объем
$1,401Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 5, 2025, 2:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.Polymarket traders reflect near-certain consensus with a 97% implied probability on "No" for President Trump reducing the U.S. federal budget deficit before 2027, driven by fiscal year 2026 year-to-date outlays already reaching a $954 billion deficit through early May—on pace for $2 trillion annually per OMB and CBO projections, surpassing FY2025's $1.8 trillion shortfall. Surging defense spending and interest payments, outpacing revenue gains from tariffs and income taxes, have widened the gap, with the 12-month rolling deficit hitting $1.7 trillion in April amid no enacted cuts. Tail risks include an unforeseen revenue surge from economic overperformance or mid-year austerity measures before September 30, 2026 resolution, though policy momentum favors expansion.
The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.
Объем
$1,401Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 5, 2025, 2:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Polymarket traders reflect near-certain consensus with a 97% implied probability on "No" for President Trump reducing the U.S. federal budget deficit before 2027, driven by fiscal year 2026 year-to-date outlays already reaching a $954 billion deficit through early May—on pace for $2 trillion annually per OMB and CBO projections, surpassing FY2025's $1.8 trillion shortfall. Surging defense spending and interest payments, outpacing revenue gains from tariffs and income taxes, have widened the gap, with the 12-month rolling deficit hitting $1.7 trillion in April amid no enacted cuts. Tail risks include an unforeseen revenue surge from economic overperformance or mid-year austerity measures before September 30, 2026 resolution, though policy momentum favors expansion.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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