Traders assign a 98% probability against a reduction in the federal deficit before 2027 because official projections and enacted policies point to widening shortfalls. CBO baselines show the FY2026 deficit rising to $1.9 trillion from roughly $1.8 trillion in FY2025, driven by the 2025 reconciliation legislation’s tax provisions and added outlays for defense and border security. Higher tariffs have provided partial revenue offsets, yet net interest costs and mandatory spending growth continue to push totals higher through the resolution window. The administration’s FY2026 budget request and rescissions proposals have not altered this trajectory in current estimates. A reversal would require either substantially stronger-than-expected economic growth, larger-than-anticipated tariff collections, or additional spending restraint beyond measures already under consideration.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
11% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
11% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
31 дек. 2026 г.
The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.Traders assign a 98% probability against a reduction in the federal deficit before 2027 because official projections and enacted policies point to widening shortfalls. CBO baselines show the FY2026 deficit rising to $1.9 trillion from roughly $1.8 trillion in FY2025, driven by the 2025 reconciliation legislation’s tax provisions and added outlays for defense and border security. Higher tariffs have provided partial revenue offsets, yet net interest costs and mandatory spending growth continue to push totals higher through the resolution window. The administration’s FY2026 budget request and rescissions proposals have not altered this trajectory in current estimates. A reversal would require either substantially stronger-than-expected economic growth, larger-than-anticipated tariff collections, or additional spending restraint beyond measures already under consideration.
The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.
Открытие рынка: Nov 5, 2025, 2:13 PM ET
Объем
$2,497Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 5, 2025, 2:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.Traders assign a 98% probability against a reduction in the federal deficit before 2027 because official projections and enacted policies point to widening shortfalls. CBO baselines show the FY2026 deficit rising to $1.9 trillion from roughly $1.8 trillion in FY2025, driven by the 2025 reconciliation legislation’s tax provisions and added outlays for defense and border security. Higher tariffs have provided partial revenue offsets, yet net interest costs and mandatory spending growth continue to push totals higher through the resolution window. The administration’s FY2026 budget request and rescissions proposals have not altered this trajectory in current estimates. A reversal would require either substantially stronger-than-expected economic growth, larger-than-anticipated tariff collections, or additional spending restraint beyond measures already under consideration.
The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.
Объем
$2,497Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 5, 2025, 2:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 98% probability against a reduction in the federal deficit before 2027 because official projections and enacted policies point to widening shortfalls. CBO baselines show the FY2026 deficit rising to $1.9 trillion from roughly $1.8 trillion in FY2025, driven by the 2025 reconciliation legislation’s tax provisions and added outlays for defense and border security. Higher tariffs have provided partial revenue offsets, yet net interest costs and mandatory spending growth continue to push totals higher through the resolution window. The administration’s FY2026 budget request and rescissions proposals have not altered this trajectory in current estimates. A reversal would require either substantially stronger-than-expected economic growth, larger-than-anticipated tariff collections, or additional spending restraint beyond measures already under consideration.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы