The expanded 2026 World Cup features 104 matches across 48 teams, raising the baseline for penalties awarded compared to prior 32-team editions, where in-game spot kicks averaged 0.2–0.45 per match. Early group-stage results show limited penalties so far, with Switzerland’s Breel Embolo converting the first noted attempt against Qatar and no confirmed misses reported in opening fixtures. Conversion rates historically hover near 70% for open-play penalties, while knockout shootouts—absent until the round of 32—add volume with declining success on later kicks (often below 65%). VAR scrutiny, defensive setups, and fatigue in later rounds remain key variables that could shift total misses. Trader consensus on outcomes like 5+ or 10+ missed penalties reflects expectations around these volume and efficiency factors.