Recent global temperature analyses show May 2026 tracking toward the second-hottest month on record, driven primarily by the long-term anthropogenic warming trend that has elevated baseline surface temperatures and an emerging El Niño phase now projected at 61–82 percent probability for May–July by NOAA and IRI models. This adds positive sea-surface temperature anomalies across the tropical Pacific, boosting early-month readings and pushing the month ahead of most prior years except the record 2024 or 2025 May. Official April 2026 data already ranked fourth-warmest globally, and preliminary May observations align with this elevated trajectory. Market-implied odds reflect trader recognition that while full-month outcomes depend on late-May model runs, the current atmospheric and oceanic setup strongly favors a top-two finish, with only modest downside risk if cooling anomalies develop.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว2026 May 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?
2026 May 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?
2nd hottest 65%
1st hottest 30%
3rd hottest 5.5%
4th or lower 1.1%
$104,113 ปริมาณ
$104,113 ปริมาณ
Jun 10, 2026
1st hottest
30%
2nd hottest
65%
3rd hottest
6%
4th or lower
1%
2nd hottest 65%
1st hottest 30%
3rd hottest 5.5%
4th or lower 1.1%
$104,113 ปริมาณ
$104,113 ปริมาณ
Jun 10, 2026
1st hottest
$11,692 ปริมาณ
30%
2nd hottest
$3,370 ปริมาณ
65%
3rd hottest
$39,419 ปริมาณ
6%
4th or lower
$49,632 ปริมาณ
1%
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 versus the data points available for all other Mays on record.
Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Recent global temperature analyses show May 2026 tracking toward the second-hottest month on record, driven primarily by the long-term anthropogenic warming trend that has elevated baseline surface temperatures and an emerging El Niño phase now projected at 61–82 percent probability for May–July by NOAA and IRI models. This adds positive sea-surface temperature anomalies across the tropical Pacific, boosting early-month readings and pushing the month ahead of most prior years except the record 2024 or 2025 May. Official April 2026 data already ranked fourth-warmest globally, and preliminary May observations align with this elevated trajectory. Market-implied odds reflect trader recognition that while full-month outcomes depend on late-May model runs, the current atmospheric and oceanic setup strongly favors a top-two finish, with only modest downside risk if cooling anomalies develop.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 versus the data points available for all other Mays on record.
Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Apr 27, 2026, 4:32 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$104,113วันสิ้นสุด
Jun 10, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Apr 27, 2026, 4:32 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 versus the data points available for all other Mays on record.
Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Recent global temperature analyses show May 2026 tracking toward the second-hottest month on record, driven primarily by the long-term anthropogenic warming trend that has elevated baseline surface temperatures and an emerging El Niño phase now projected at 61–82 percent probability for May–July by NOAA and IRI models. This adds positive sea-surface temperature anomalies across the tropical Pacific, boosting early-month readings and pushing the month ahead of most prior years except the record 2024 or 2025 May. Official April 2026 data already ranked fourth-warmest globally, and preliminary May observations align with this elevated trajectory. Market-implied odds reflect trader recognition that while full-month outcomes depend on late-May model runs, the current atmospheric and oceanic setup strongly favors a top-two finish, with only modest downside risk if cooling anomalies develop.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 versus the data points available for all other Mays on record.
Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$104,113วันสิ้นสุด
Jun 10, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Apr 27, 2026, 4:32 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent global temperature analyses show May 2026 tracking toward the second-hottest month on record, driven primarily by the long-term anthropogenic warming trend that has elevated baseline surface temperatures and an emerging El Niño phase now projected at 61–82 percent probability for May–July by NOAA and IRI models. This adds positive sea-surface temperature anomalies across the tropical Pacific, boosting early-month readings and pushing the month ahead of most prior years except the record 2024 or 2025 May. Official April 2026 data already ranked fourth-warmest globally, and preliminary May observations align with this elevated trajectory. Market-implied odds reflect trader recognition that while full-month outcomes depend on late-May model runs, the current atmospheric and oceanic setup strongly favors a top-two finish, with only modest downside risk if cooling anomalies develop.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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