Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 57.5% implied probability for 2026 ranking second-hottest on record and 35.5% for first, driven by NOAA's latest ENSO forecast indicating an 82% chance of El Niño emerging by May-July 2026 and persisting through year-end at 96% odds, potentially rivaling the record 2023-24 event. This follows a first-quarter 2026 where global surface temperatures ranked among the top five for January-March per NOAA and Copernicus data, trailing 2024's record pace amid lingering neutral-to-La Niña conditions but poised for a late-year surge from El Niño-boosted sea surface temperatures. With 2024 confirmed as the warmest year, 2023 and 2025 tied for second-third, anthropogenic warming ensures top rankings, though model ensembles acknowledge uncertainty from exact El Niño strength; watch June ENSO updates and May temperature reports for shifts.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วปี 2026 จะติดอันดับปีที่ร้อนแรงที่สุดในประวัติการณ์ที่ไหน?
ปี 2026 จะติดอันดับปีที่ร้อนแรงที่สุดในประวัติการณ์ที่ไหน?
2 57%
1 36%
4 2.8%
6 หรือต่ำกว่า 2.3%
$2,817,268 ปริมาณ
$2,817,268 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
1
36%
2
57%
3
2%
4
3%
5
1%
6 หรือต่ำกว่า
2%
2 57%
1 36%
4 2.8%
6 หรือต่ำกว่า 2.3%
$2,817,268 ปริมาณ
$2,817,268 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
1
$453,644 ปริมาณ
36%
2
$325,787 ปริมาณ
57%
3
$425,903 ปริมาณ
2%
4
$415,988 ปริมาณ
3%
5
$731,047 ปริมาณ
1%
6 หรือต่ำกว่า
$464,899 ปริมาณ
2%
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 57.5% implied probability for 2026 ranking second-hottest on record and 35.5% for first, driven by NOAA's latest ENSO forecast indicating an 82% chance of El Niño emerging by May-July 2026 and persisting through year-end at 96% odds, potentially rivaling the record 2023-24 event. This follows a first-quarter 2026 where global surface temperatures ranked among the top five for January-March per NOAA and Copernicus data, trailing 2024's record pace amid lingering neutral-to-La Niña conditions but poised for a late-year surge from El Niño-boosted sea surface temperatures. With 2024 confirmed as the warmest year, 2023 and 2025 tied for second-third, anthropogenic warming ensures top rankings, though model ensembles acknowledge uncertainty from exact El Niño strength; watch June ENSO updates and May temperature reports for shifts.
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$2,817,268วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 57.5% implied probability for 2026 ranking second-hottest on record and 35.5% for first, driven by NOAA's latest ENSO forecast indicating an 82% chance of El Niño emerging by May-July 2026 and persisting through year-end at 96% odds, potentially rivaling the record 2023-24 event. This follows a first-quarter 2026 where global surface temperatures ranked among the top five for January-March per NOAA and Copernicus data, trailing 2024's record pace amid lingering neutral-to-La Niña conditions but poised for a late-year surge from El Niño-boosted sea surface temperatures. With 2024 confirmed as the warmest year, 2023 and 2025 tied for second-third, anthropogenic warming ensures top rankings, though model ensembles acknowledge uncertainty from exact El Niño strength; watch June ENSO updates and May temperature reports for shifts.
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$2,817,268วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 57.5% implied probability for 2026 ranking second-hottest on record and 35.5% for first, driven by NOAA's latest ENSO forecast indicating an 82% chance of El Niño emerging by May-July 2026 and persisting through year-end at 96% odds, potentially rivaling the record 2023-24 event. This follows a first-quarter 2026 where global surface temperatures ranked among the top five for January-March per NOAA and Copernicus data, trailing 2024's record pace amid lingering neutral-to-La Niña conditions but poised for a late-year surge from El Niño-boosted sea surface temperatures. With 2024 confirmed as the warmest year, 2023 and 2025 tied for second-third, anthropogenic warming ensures top rankings, though model ensembles acknowledge uncertainty from exact El Niño strength; watch June ENSO updates and May temperature reports for shifts.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
คำถามที่พบบ่อย