Recent early-May 2026 temperature anomalies, including a Northern Hemisphere daily record on May 8, combined with the ongoing long-term warming trend and the emerging El Niño expected to strengthen through summer, position the month as a strong contender for second-hottest on record. Official monitoring from NOAA and Copernicus shows global temperatures already elevated from the 2023–2025 string of near-record years, with model consensus favoring continued warmth but not the extreme peaks seen in 2024 or 2023. This scientific backdrop underpins trader consensus reflected in the 66.5% implied probability for second place, while the modest 28.5% odds for first reflect uncertainty around whether May will fully surpass prior benchmarks amid typical month-to-month variability in ENSO impacts.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว2026 May 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?
2026 May 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?
2nd hottest 67%
1st hottest 29%
3rd hottest 5.2%
4th or lower 1.1%
$104,280 ปริมาณ
$104,280 ปริมาณ
Jun 10, 2026
1st hottest
29%
2nd hottest
67%
3rd hottest
5%
4th or lower
1%
2nd hottest 67%
1st hottest 29%
3rd hottest 5.2%
4th or lower 1.1%
$104,280 ปริมาณ
$104,280 ปริมาณ
Jun 10, 2026
1st hottest
$11,825 ปริมาณ
29%
2nd hottest
$3,370 ปริมาณ
67%
3rd hottest
$39,453 ปริมาณ
5%
4th or lower
$49,632 ปริมาณ
1%
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 versus the data points available for all other Mays on record.
Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Recent early-May 2026 temperature anomalies, including a Northern Hemisphere daily record on May 8, combined with the ongoing long-term warming trend and the emerging El Niño expected to strengthen through summer, position the month as a strong contender for second-hottest on record. Official monitoring from NOAA and Copernicus shows global temperatures already elevated from the 2023–2025 string of near-record years, with model consensus favoring continued warmth but not the extreme peaks seen in 2024 or 2023. This scientific backdrop underpins trader consensus reflected in the 66.5% implied probability for second place, while the modest 28.5% odds for first reflect uncertainty around whether May will fully surpass prior benchmarks amid typical month-to-month variability in ENSO impacts.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 versus the data points available for all other Mays on record.
Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Apr 27, 2026, 4:32 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$104,280วันสิ้นสุด
Jun 10, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Apr 27, 2026, 4:32 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 versus the data points available for all other Mays on record.
Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Recent early-May 2026 temperature anomalies, including a Northern Hemisphere daily record on May 8, combined with the ongoing long-term warming trend and the emerging El Niño expected to strengthen through summer, position the month as a strong contender for second-hottest on record. Official monitoring from NOAA and Copernicus shows global temperatures already elevated from the 2023–2025 string of near-record years, with model consensus favoring continued warmth but not the extreme peaks seen in 2024 or 2023. This scientific backdrop underpins trader consensus reflected in the 66.5% implied probability for second place, while the modest 28.5% odds for first reflect uncertainty around whether May will fully surpass prior benchmarks amid typical month-to-month variability in ENSO impacts.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 versus the data points available for all other Mays on record.
Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$104,280วันสิ้นสุด
Jun 10, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Apr 27, 2026, 4:32 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent early-May 2026 temperature anomalies, including a Northern Hemisphere daily record on May 8, combined with the ongoing long-term warming trend and the emerging El Niño expected to strengthen through summer, position the month as a strong contender for second-hottest on record. Official monitoring from NOAA and Copernicus shows global temperatures already elevated from the 2023–2025 string of near-record years, with model consensus favoring continued warmth but not the extreme peaks seen in 2024 or 2023. This scientific backdrop underpins trader consensus reflected in the 66.5% implied probability for second place, while the modest 28.5% odds for first reflect uncertainty around whether May will fully surpass prior benchmarks amid typical month-to-month variability in ENSO impacts.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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