**No at 89.5%** reflects the absence of any confirmed 5-kiloton-or-greater bolide through the first nine months of 2026, alongside historical impact frequencies. NASA’s CNEOS fireball database and CTBTO infrasound networks show multi-kiloton airbursts occur roughly once every several years on average, with meter-scale objects releasing ~5 kt energy roughly annually in some estimates but often below detection thresholds or over oceans. No catalogued near-Earth objects are on collision trajectories for the remainder of the year, and recent small impacts such as 2026 RW1 released far less energy. With only three months left, the probability of an undetected event meeting the exact resolution criteria—natural meteoroid, ≥5 kt via official repositories—remains low. Traders price this base-rate reality plus the shrinking time window.